Guest Post: The Reverse Tepper Moment

“In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks).”


Albert Edwards Wins 14th Straight Award, Leaves Haters Salty, Makes Dire Prediction

“If this is, as we strongly believe, an aberration and the equity yield reconnects with the red dotted arrow, then investors should be petrified of the next equity bear market.”

“How Long Will Financial Assets March Higher?” BofAML Has A Simple Answer

I’ve got a question for you on Sunday. Here it is: are you someone who thinks the best answer is usually the simplest one? And I’ve got a follow-up: are you someone who likes tautological reasoning? Well, if you answered “yes” to both of those questions, then you will love BofAML’s answer to the question implicit…

You Hate That Giant Equity Position Right? Well Hedge It With Bonds And “Hope To Lose Money”

“People love the Plunge Protection Team conspiracy theory when looking at equities. Well that’s exactly what is happening in bonds, right out in the open.”

The Air Conditioning Is Broken, So Sell Stocks, Buy Bonds

Were you looking for an excuse to move out of nosebleed equities and into something (relatively) safer? Do your eyes glaze over when people like us try to bore you with all kinds of annoying “analysis”? Do you long for an idiot-proof rationale for changing your asset allocation but don’t want to be the guy who has…

Synchronized Swimming (We’ve Only Seen This Once Since 2004)

“2017 is on track to be the first year of synchronized equity inflows to all major region funds since 2004.”

Sunday Chart Check: “Diversification”

“The market value of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond vs. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF hit a 3-year low in March 2017.”

Chart Of The Day: (No) Go With The Flow

“Flows across the asset classes we track have slowed down to the lowest level since late 2015.”

This Is One Rally You Probably Shouldn’t Fade (And I’m Not Talking About Stocks)

Holy Schatz! Again.

Bentley Mulsannes, Vespers, And Useless Projections

I will never understand investors’ fascination with people who make predictions. By extension, I will never understand the allure of articles that make specific recommendations or have concluding paragraphs in which someone pretends to peg the exact entry/exit point for a specific asset or for an asset class. I mean surely the audience realizes how…

“Short Of A Lifetime” Back On?

“I’m not entirely sure how sustainable this is.”

Think The Great Bond Bull Market Is Dead? Not So Fast

Old bulls, like old habits, die hard.

Visualizing A “Yield Crisis”

Bonds for the capital gains, stocks for the yield…

Liquidity Lapse: Don’t Say You Weren’t Warned

The liquidity picture for corporate cash bonds is looking increasingly ugly.

Investment Grade Corporate Bond Sales Hit 17-Week High

On Sunday, I noted that the first week of January was a blockbuster for corporate bond sales. Indeed, nearly a dozen firms sold roughly $20 billion in debt in the US last Tuesday alone – the most ever for the first day of the year. I also highlighted the rosy outlook for IG on the heels…