The Arbitrageur
I’m (not) rich “All’s well that ends well. I mean, I’m rich now. So
My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money
Cue the Ren & Stimpy horse: “No sir, I don’t like it.” Amazon said after
Lagarde Versus Le Pen?
I’m not going to pretend any of you care about Christine Lagarde’s “early” exit from
‘Remains Elevated’
Inflation. It’s high. “Remains elevated,” as the Fed puts it in every FOMC statement, as
Dissembling Strategery
Dissembling. That’s one word — and probably the only one you need — to describe
Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits
Big numbers, everybody. Big numbers. Alphabet and Microsoft reported quarterly results after the bell on
Mona Lisa’s Smirk
The Kevin Warsh Fed, which is so committed to restoring price stability as defined by
An ARM And A Leg
Congratulations to Donald Trump and Scott Bessent on a — checks notes — 13bps drop
The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State
I won’t bury the lede. The tragic irony of the Israeli state is that it’s
F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
On Tuesday morning, in what I can only describe as an egregious error of judgment,
Frozen Bubble
They bought some new homes last month. I don’t know for the life of me
It’s All Relative
“WOW! Consumer confidence up BIG! Thank you President Trump!” That’s what I’d say on my
Around, Around We Go
Deals, deals everywhere. Most of them circular. What could go wrong? On Tuesday, in the
Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
We believe that AI is one of the most consequential technologies in human history. If
Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market
You better keep buying. Buying stocks, I mean. Because while the corporate bid’s still huge
It’s A Big Week
It’s gonna be a big week. Who’s excited?! No, seriously. This is a crucial week
Credit Canaries
In addition to a smorgasbord of macro data, a Fed meeting and earnings reports from
What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting
Nothing. That’s the answer to the question implicitly posed by the title here. A succession
Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?
Last Friday, I wrote that “the business week ended October 16, 2026, will either be
After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?
Although I’ll take it vis à vis my early-October suggestion that US yields had likely
Kevin Needs A Credit Event
If the Kevin Warsh Fed was already inclined to suggest the market’s “doing some of
Return Of The Left-Tail
Remember the left-tail? If not, no one will blame you. It was, err, left for
Not Since 1969…
Earlier this month, I noted that US jobless claims were about to make history. Again.
Not Done Just Yet?
The Pentagon’s “assembling a massive arsenal” in the Gulf, where American forces will be “fully
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