Market participants are suffering from (or maybe “relishing in” is better) a veritable “VIX-ation.” Why is vol so low? What’s the role of VIX ETPs in all of this? Are there structural factors at play that will effectively keep vol suppressed indefinitely? Are central banks indirectly suppressing vol and if so, can’t that theoretically go…
We’re seeing a flight-to-safety bid amid suggestions that Donald Trump might have tried to rope two top intel chiefs into his attempt to obstruct the Russia investigation and as information continues to come in from Manchester where multiple fatalities have been reported after an explosion at an Ariana Grande concert. USDJPY fell quickly when WaPo first reported the Trump story. “Dollar/yen’s…
“President Trump asked two of the nation’s top intelligence officials in March to help him push back against an FBI investigation into possible coordination between his campaign and the Russian government, according to current and former officials.”
“Not one guy with a bad placard.”
“In a notable shift of public opinion, a substantial majority of Americans now favor a travel ban on a person who has recently visited a Muslim country, a new poll shows.”
“Unbelievable.”
“Legacy”…
We’ve said for quite some time now that it probably isn’t entirely rational to think that emerging market anything can continue to perform the way it has YTD. This was already a tenuous situation. You’ve got an EM complex that’s managed to shake off the beginning of what’s supposed to be a Fed tightening cycle and…
“I never said the word ‘Israel.'”
“Has the so-called floor for IG risen since 2014? And if it has, does it represent a cheap short at these levels?”
We already knew Mike Flynn had nothing to hide about the Trump administration’s ties to Moscow because back in March, he requested immunity from prosecution in exchange for his testimony. Now to be sure, some people didn’t agree with the above assessment. That is, some people thought that the very fact Mike Flynn asked for immunity…
The President appeals to Supreme Court to suspend investigation on him. No, that’s not breaking news on the Trump administration’s ties to the Kremlin. Rather, it comes from Brazil where Michel Temer is attempting to plug holes in a quickly sinking ship. You’ll recall that last week, a new corruption scandal erupted in the country, promptly…
“Last week it was, U.S. is cratering, the legislative agenda is dead, China is tightening at a dangerous rate and Brazil will take down the emerging market complex. So far today, and it’s only Monday, global growth is accelerating, corporate profits are great, China knows exactly when to ease off the decelerator, PMIs are a source of strength not worry.”
So a lot of folks have observed that if you’re looking for a reason to not sell stocks on negative political headlines, one argument goes something like this: the market stopped believing in Trump’s agenda a long time ago, so while there are plenty of reasons to lighten up, “Trump” probably isn’t a good one.…
Were you looking for an excuse to move out of nosebleed equities and into something (relatively) safer? Do your eyes glaze over when people like us try to bore you with all kinds of annoying “analysis”? Do you long for an idiot-proof rationale for changing your asset allocation but don’t want to be the guy who has…
Yea, though we walk through the valley of the shadow of death, we will fear no geopolitical tail risk: for Donald Trump art with us; thy orb and thy staff they comfort me…
“This isn’t a short-term signal, but it does suggest that the long- term Goldilocks environment for equities is here for a long while yet.”
Are your stocks on the list?
Ok look, I know we’ve said this over and over. But the evidence just keeps piling up. High yield credit is a goddamn bubble. And it refuses to burst. Hell it was just yesterday when we noted that if you want to know just how resilient junk has become, you need only look at Wednesday…
Bow before the all mighty orb.
