BofA ‘Cautious’ On S&P, Sees Pullback Risk
Corporate earnings are robust, there’s no denying that, but strong fundamentals may not be enough
Reformed Bear Not Worried, Calls Inflation ‘Old News’
Don’t worry. Because Mike Wilson’s not. Not worried, I mean. Not about Fed hikes, nor
Revisiting Macro’s ‘Most Important Chart’
Late last month, I spent a few minutes editorializing around what SocGen’s Albert Edwards dubbed
Over A Barrel
Oil pushed higher on Monday as markets assessed the situation in Yemen, where new reporting
Warsh To Risk Trump’s Wrath With September Rate Hike
Following Kevin Warsh’s ostensibly hawkish address in Jackson Hole, I wrote that if the market-implied
Diesel Surge Eyed After US Consumers Tapped Brakes
The September FOMC meeting‘s not the only macro-market game in town this week, although it’ll
Weekly: A Turning Point For Treasurys?
Last weekend, I asked if US Treasurys were becoming “uninvestable.” For my trouble, I was
The Bab Al-Mandab Now Belongs To The Houthis
It’s an all-too-familiar scene. Old pickup trucks, their beds loaded down with camo-clad, AK-wielding militants,
America’s Stock-Rich Score $11 Trillion Windfall During War
American households lucky enough to own stocks and real estate enjoyed a record windfall in
Would You Feel Better If I Gave You $5,000?
Guess what? US households were dejected early this month amid surging fuel costs and generalized
You Gotta Hike Now, Kevin
Friday’s all-important (and for once, “all-important” isn’t hyperbole) US CPI report overshot consensus on the
Too Much Crazy: Rates In Open Revolt
Laugh. That’s all you can do. At Donald Trump. And at Scott Bessent. And at
Wars Have Consequences
Wars have consequences. I’d tell you to ask George W. Bush, but he’d probably insist
$5,000 ‘Trump Dividend’ Is Classic Populist Inanity
“Vote Republican. I’ll give you $5,000.” That’s Donald Trump’s mid-term pitch, and in addition to
Nip It In The Bud!
“For an extended period.” If you were curious as to how long Europeans will have
The House Always Wins?
Treasury tripled the maximum size of its September 10 bond buyback on Wednesday, following through
‘I Am The House’
Some people — not me, of course — might call Scott Bessent a pompous moron.
War Of Attrition
There’s a pretty good piece in Foreign Affairs this week called “Why America Can’t Strangle
Since The Plague…
Americans were the most pessimistic last month on the US labor market since the world’s
China Paces For Another $1 Trillion ‘Win’
Xi Jinping’s on track to break his own trade surplus record. That was the overarching
The Oil’s On Fire
The oil’s on fire. Again. Dozens of Saudis, including women and children, were injured Tuesday
Yen As Flashpoint
“When the facts change.” Over and over again since Scott Bessent stepped in to help
September Is Cruelest Month For Stocks. And Bonds
Technically, we’re already several trading sessions into September, but the month doesn’t really “start” for
Bargain Bonds, Bubble Stocks?
Long-end US Treasurys: They’re either a screaming bargain or an uninvestable falling knife. We’ll find
Warsh Hangs His Hat On Friday’s Inflation Report
High drama! Late last week, Donald Trump warned Kevin Warsh not to raise rates at
Weekly: Are US Treasurys Becoming Uninvestable?
It’s always darkest before the dawn, as the old saying goes, but I’ll becha you
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