“Tweet Risk” Is Now Officially Part Of The Wall Street Lexicon

Analysts are now forced to take Trump’s tweets into account when commenting on the prospects for specific stocks. That, in turn, has led to the contention that idiosyncratic risk will almost invariably rise during Trump’s presidency. It’s thus very possible that Donald Trump could single-handedly bring about a shift in inter-market correlations.


Uncertainty, “The Highly Improbable”, Goldman Sachs, And Some Swamp Draining

The “highly improbable” has become more probable lately. At least that’s my contention. The paradox – and I’ve discussed this with investors both online and in person – is that despite the growing sense of uncertainty, the VIX is depressed and market participants are positioned as if they’re absolutely sure of where things are headed. Note the…


Trump: 3 Scenarios For Markets

Wondering how markets will perform under Trump? Of course you are. Since no one is sure exactly what the ubiquitous “first 100 days” will bring, it’s probably best to explore a range of possible outcomes. The fate of the reflation narrative will take center stage over the next couple of weeks as we find out whether the…