Achtung Baby
If you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the CDU in Germany following the
What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?
How high can bond yields go before stocks “notice”? That question feels terribly clichéd if
A King In Washington
Donald Trump will host his “good friend” Xi Jinping in Washington this week for a
The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here
“No soup for you!” Sorry, I couldn’t resist. If you don’t immediately get the joke,
Who’s Coming To Nashville?
Jesus Christ, maybe I should sell something and buy in Nashville. My aversion to country
Weekly: The Counterfactual
As a general rule, macro-market snark tends towards the conspiratorial only as it relates to
‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges
The yen plunged on Friday despite the most hawkish Bank of Japan meeting in living
A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market
There was good news and bad news in Thursday’s update on residential construction in America.
Below 200k. Again.
Oh, look: US jobless claims are back below 200,000. In an ostensibly auspicious development for
Holding Pattern
The sooner elevated energy costs recede, the better. If the war-driven increase in crude and
‘The Plain Fact’
“The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long,”
Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God
The Fed raised rates on Wednesday, thank God. I say “thank God” because a Fed
How Crack Spread Reflexivity Kills The Equity Bull Market
Crack. It kills. It’s also a high margin business. Not that I’d know. Currently, crack’s
Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar
Homebuilder sentiment remained in the dumps early this month, according to the September installment of
Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending
The Fed needn’t worry about the US consumer when it comes to debating the merits
Trump’s ‘Achilles Heel’ May Raise Odds Of Energy Export Ban
Blame China. No, seriously. If you’re vexed by triple-digit crude and you need another scapegoat
‘Disorderly’ Bonds Are Biggest Tail Risk As Pros Doubt ‘The House’
“The House” won’t win. Not this time. According to nearly 200 fund managers who participated
Warsh Behind The Curve Already, Fund Managers Say
The Fed’s behind the curve. That was one message from the September vintage of BofA’s
G7 Bond Crisis Escalates
G7 sovereign bond yields rose again early Tuesday. “The beatings will continue until morale improves,”
Congrats On 5%, Scott!
Well, it finally happened: 10-year US yields traded with a five-handle on Monday, an “achievement”
BofA ‘Cautious’ On S&P, Sees Pullback Risk
Corporate earnings are robust, there’s no denying that, but strong fundamentals may not be enough
Reformed Bear Not Worried, Calls Inflation ‘Old News’
Don’t worry. Because Mike Wilson’s not. Not worried, I mean. Not about Fed hikes, nor
Revisiting Macro’s ‘Most Important Chart’
Late last month, I spent a few minutes editorializing around what SocGen’s Albert Edwards dubbed
Over A Barrel
Oil pushed higher on Monday as markets assessed the situation in Yemen, where new reporting
Warsh To Risk Trump’s Wrath With September Rate Hike
Following Kevin Warsh’s ostensibly hawkish address in Jackson Hole, I wrote that if the market-implied
Diesel Surge Eyed After US Consumers Tapped Brakes
The September FOMC meeting‘s not the only macro-market game in town this week, although it’ll
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