A Changed World Demands A Higher Term Premium
As a reminder: The term premium really shouldn’t be negative. There are myriad risks associated
Wilson Has ‘Different View From Mainstream’ On Rate Rise
As mentioned here on Monday morning, and as discussed at greater length earlier this month
No One’s Buying It
On Monday, The New Yorker‘s John Cassidy published a piece called “The Humbling Of Scott
The Road (Back) To Financial Repression
Markets have finally run out of patience with sovereign risk. That’s the overarching message from
Here’s Why Markets Smirked At Bessent’s Buybacks
The problem with Scott Bessent’s rationale for upsizing US Treasury buybacks is that it’s a
New Tariff War Is Risky Gamble For An Unpopular President
Late last month, while documenting the return of Tariff Man, I wrote that “it’s easier,
Reclaiming The Narrative
Between them, Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh need to reclaim the narrative next week. That
Dollar Debasement Narrative Returns With A Vengeance
Macro-market headlines out of the US were inauspicious at the end of what, notwithstanding a
Failure’s Not An Option
The phrase “failure’s not an option” typically accompanies dire circumstances like, say, Operation Dynamo. No
Weekly: Scott’s Folly
Congratulations to Scott Bessent for hijacking the market narrative this week. There wasn’t much on
Did Bessent ‘Put’ Us Back On The Road To QE?
Why? And why now? Those were the main questions floating around markets a day on
Watch Out For ‘Two Key Things,’ Albert Edwards Says
There’s a crisis brewing, according to SocGen’s Albert Edwards. He’d know. He’s seen all manner
‘The Bessent Put’
On January 31, 2024, when he was still managing private capital as opposed to the
‘Many’ Fed Officials Reckon Inflation’s A Problem
“Several” participants at last month’s FOMC meeting wanted to raise rates in light of what
Bessent Bails Out The Bonds
Earlier this week, I suggested Scott Bessent had a burgeoning PR problem. On Monday, the
A Profit Boom Like No Other
Believe it or not, we’re still “in” Q2 reporting season. It’s almost over, but not
In Major Escalation, UAE Imposes Trade, Financial Embargo On Iran
Abu Dhabi’s seen enough. On Wednesday, the Emirates imposed a complete trade embargo on Tehran after
They’re Worried About The Capex
They’re worried about the capex. And the attendant debt binge. But not so worried that
Cheap Gold?
How does my gold joke go again? Oh yeah. Like this: “Gold. It’s shiny and
Bulls A-Bakin’!
Somehow, Michael Hartnett found more than 200 fund managers to poll during the second week
Scott Bessent Has A PR Problem
The US long bond cheapened again on Monday, and I gotta tell you: The optics
China’s Looming Crisis
I’m wary of the word “unsustainable” in the macro-market. It has an air of imminence.
Poof! The Homebuyers Just Vanished
Whaddya get when you “add” up record-high home prices, elevated (in the post-GFC context) mortgage
Builders, House Hunters Waylaid By Costs, ‘Topsy-Turvy’ Economy
Another month, another God-awful read on the marquee gauge of US homebuilder moods. Does anyone
Hyper-Compression
One thing we learned over the past three or so months is that broad US
Summer Minutes
This’ll be a relatively quiet week on the macro front, leaving the onus for excitement
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