‘The Bessent Put’
On January 31, 2024, when he was still managing private capital as opposed to the
‘Many’ Fed Officials Reckon Inflation’s A Problem
“Several” participants at last month’s FOMC meeting wanted to raise rates in light of what
Bessent Bails Out The Bonds
Earlier this week, I suggested Scott Bessent had a burgeoning PR problem. On Monday, the
A Profit Boom Like No Other
Believe it or not, we’re still “in” Q2 reporting season. It’s almost over, but not
In Major Escalation, UAE Imposes Trade, Financial Embargo On Iran
Abu Dhabi’s seen enough. On Wednesday, the Emirates imposed a complete trade embargo on Tehran after
They’re Worried About The Capex
They’re worried about the capex. And the attendant debt binge. But not so worried that
Cheap Gold?
How does my gold joke go again? Oh yeah. Like this: “Gold. It’s shiny and
Bulls A-Bakin’!
Somehow, Michael Hartnett found more than 200 fund managers to poll during the second week
Scott Bessent Has A PR Problem
The US long bond cheapened again on Monday, and I gotta tell you: The optics
China’s Looming Crisis
I’m wary of the word “unsustainable” in the macro-market. It has an air of imminence.
Poof! The Homebuyers Just Vanished
Whaddya get when you “add” up record-high home prices, elevated (in the post-GFC context) mortgage
Builders, House Hunters Waylaid By Costs, ‘Topsy-Turvy’ Economy
Another month, another God-awful read on the marquee gauge of US homebuilder moods. Does anyone
Hyper-Compression
One thing we learned over the past three or so months is that broad US
Summer Minutes
This’ll be a relatively quiet week on the macro front, leaving the onus for excitement
24 Weeks Later
Again and again since the pandemic, I find myself returning to the idea that what
Long Bond, Big News
The long bond’s big news. In fact, I’d wager you’re like me in having read
Weekly: Buy Gold?
Uncle Sam’s borrowing costs were still front-page news on Friday, as the financial media spilled
Awful Consumer Sentiment Release Is Midterm Warning
It’s a miss! Another one. And it comes with a warning for the White House
Control Issues!
Uh-oh. A key measure of underlying demand surprised to the downside in Friday’s update on
Uncle Sam Pays The Piper
On August 12, I suggested next year’s biggest macro-market story may be the interplay between
Jobs On The Rocks, Claims On The Lows
Waning. That’s private-sector hiring in the US. I’m not breaking any news here. The ADP headline
Wholesale Inflation Rolls Over, Further Bolstering Fed Doves
Another day, another benign inflation readout for a Fed chair who’d very much like to
This May Be 2027’s Most Important Macro-Market Story…
Earlier this week, in “Food For Thought,” I touched on the increasingly topical interplay between
Oops: Home Sales Plunge To Two-Year Low In America
Good news! I’m being sarcastic already. Typically, if you see me use an exclamation point,
How Oracle Changed The Game
When I write about the AI buildout, I tend to reference Oracle’s September 2025 earnings
Warsh Gets Another Break As US Inflation Tame
Inflation across the world’s largest economy was relatively tame last month, consistent with economists’ forecasts,
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