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Featured

Capitol Punishment

May 16, 2025May 16, 2025
  • Is The Fed Ignoring An Inflation Expectations Crisis?

    May 16, 2025May 16, 2025
  • Just When You Thought Americans Couldn’t Get More Depressed…

    May 16, 2025
  • Wa-a-a-ait, Mr. Postman!

    May 16, 2025May 16, 2025

Duly Noted+

Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues

May 16, 2025May 16, 2025

Not Out Of The Woods

May 14, 2025May 14, 2025

economy

Homebuilder Sentiment Crashes Anew As Tariffs, Lackluster Spring Weigh

May 15, 2025May 16, 2025
  • A Wholesale Decline

    May 15, 2025May 16, 2025
  • Key Retail Sales Metric Slips As Walmart Warns On Price Hikes

    May 15, 2025May 16, 2025
  • US Home-Buying Season ‘Stunted’ By Intractable Affordability Crisis

    May 14, 2025May 15, 2025
  • Core Inflation Comes In Cool Again, As Good News Accumulates

    May 13, 2025May 14, 2025

Markets

America Has A Problem. And The Only Solution Is Dollar Weakness

May 15, 2025May 16, 2025
  • More Extortion

    May 14, 2025May 15, 2025
  • It’s Not ‘TDS.’ It’s ‘WTAFITGD’

    May 13, 2025May 14, 2025
  • The Pros Were ‘Glum.’ Then Geneva Happened

    May 13, 2025May 14, 2025
  • What The US-China Trade Truce Means For The Fed

    May 12, 2025May 13, 2025

Politics

Royals Bearing Gifts

May 14, 2025May 15, 2025

Remember: It’s Probably A Projection

May 13, 2025May 15, 2025

Providing For The Public Good

May 10, 2025May 12, 2025

Capitol Punishment

May 16, 2025May 16, 2025

Let’s dispense with a few obvious points up front. From a pseudo-philosophical perspective, it doesn’t

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Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues

May 16, 2025May 16, 2025

The flows rotation out of US shares and into RoW equities paused over the last

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1 Comment on Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues

Is The Fed Ignoring An Inflation Expectations Crisis?

May 16, 2025May 16, 2025

It’s a good thing 2025 Jerome Powell doesn’t put any more weight on the University

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2 Comments on Is The Fed Ignoring An Inflation Expectations Crisis?

Just When You Thought Americans Couldn’t Get More Depressed…

May 16, 2025

Gosh. It was worse than I expected. Considerably worse, actually. Last weekend, while previewing this

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Wa-a-a-ait, Mr. Postman!

May 16, 2025May 16, 2025

Water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink. To let Donald Trump tell it, the

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10 Comments on Wa-a-a-ait, Mr. Postman!

America Has A Problem. And The Only Solution Is Dollar Weakness

May 15, 2025May 16, 2025

America has a problem. A lot of them, actually. Don’t get me started. We’ll be

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12 Comments on America Has A Problem. And The Only Solution Is Dollar Weakness

Homebuilder Sentiment Crashes Anew As Tariffs, Lackluster Spring Weigh

May 15, 2025May 16, 2025

Yuck. That’s one word to describe Thursday’s update on US homebuilder sentiment. I suppose no

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A Wholesale Decline

May 15, 2025May 16, 2025

If you were looking for more good news — however fleeting it might prove —

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2 Comments on A Wholesale Decline

Key Retail Sales Metric Slips As Walmart Warns On Price Hikes

May 15, 2025May 16, 2025

US retail sales came up short where it counted on a day when Walmart warned

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Not Out Of The Woods

May 14, 2025May 14, 2025

The 2025 bear market plunge in US equities will be remembered as one the most

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2 Comments on Not Out Of The Woods

Royals Bearing Gifts

May 14, 2025May 15, 2025

America’s would-be king spent Tuesday yukking it up with real royals in Riyadh. On Wednesday,

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6 Comments on Royals Bearing Gifts

US Home-Buying Season ‘Stunted’ By Intractable Affordability Crisis

May 14, 2025May 15, 2025

If you’re wondering — or perhaps I should say in case you had any doubts

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More Extortion

May 14, 2025May 15, 2025

Earlier this month, when the Taiwan dollar was busy staging a statistically impossible rally, officials

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2 Comments on More Extortion

Gold: Overvalued And Overbought?

May 13, 2025May 13, 2025

Gold. Every time I mention it, somebody gets pissed at me. With the possible exception

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3 Comments on Gold: Overvalued And Overbought?

Remember: It’s Probably A Projection

May 13, 2025May 15, 2025

“You done writing for today?” I was talking with my psychiatrist on Monday. If you’re

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15 Comments on Remember: It’s Probably A Projection

It’s Not ‘TDS.’ It’s ‘WTAFITGD’

May 13, 2025May 14, 2025

Tariffs were supposed to be USD bullish, but I was supposed to be a corporate

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Core Inflation Comes In Cool Again, As Good News Accumulates

May 13, 2025May 14, 2025

Good news. More of it. Core inflation in the US ran cooler than expected in

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The Pros Were ‘Glum.’ Then Geneva Happened

May 13, 2025May 14, 2025

Professional investor sentiment improved this month, and thank goodness for that. Recall that last month’s

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1 Comment on The Pros Were ‘Glum.’ Then Geneva Happened

To Hell And Back Again?

May 12, 2025May 12, 2025

To hell and back again. That’s one way to describe the last three or so

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What The US-China Trade Truce Means For The Fed

May 12, 2025May 13, 2025

What’s the read-through from the US-China trade truce for the Fed? That’s not a straightforward

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5 Comments on What The US-China Trade Truce Means For The Fed

‘Only Incompetent, Not Totally Insane’

May 12, 2025May 13, 2025

Earlier this month, Marko Kolanovic said the Trump administration’s hopelessly mercurial approach to trade policy

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8 Comments on ‘Only Incompetent, Not Totally Insane’

Tell That To Rain Man

May 12, 2025May 13, 2025

Late last week, I wondered if maybe — just maybe — the trade charade was

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9 Comments on Tell That To Rain Man

‘Art Of The Deal’ Strikes Again

May 12, 2025May 13, 2025

Art of the deal! Donald Trump agreed to pause most tariffs on China for 90

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17 Comments on ‘Art Of The Deal’ Strikes Again

Old News

May 11, 2025May 12, 2025

For whatever it’s worth to you in the context of a hopelessly indeterminate US macro

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2 Comments on Old News

‘Great Progress’

May 11, 2025May 12, 2025

US-China trade headlines will undoubtedly dominate the news flow in the days ahead. “GREAT PROGRESS”

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12 Comments on ‘Great Progress’

Providing For The Public Good

May 10, 2025May 12, 2025

JD Vance and Marco Rubio — it’s probably more accurate to say Marco Rubio and

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9 Comments on Providing For The Public Good

An Uninformed Decision

May 10, 2025

The defining feature of Donald Trump’s worldview seems to be that the drawbacks and pitfalls

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Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter+

  • Dope

Weekly+

  • An Uninformed Decision

Recent Comments

  • Huntly on Wa-a-a-ait, Mr. Postman!
  • John3D on Wa-a-a-ait, Mr. Postman!
  • Jeff Rudd on Is The Fed Ignoring An Inflation Expectations Crisis?
  • LARRY JOHNSON on Wa-a-a-ait, Mr. Postman!

Monthly Letters

Dope

May 3, 2025May 9, 2025

The Great Depression

March 31, 2025March 31, 2025

The Devil’s Greatest Trick

March 1, 2025March 12, 2025

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