Is The Earnings Bubble About To Pop?
Is the great American “profit boom” coming to an end? Spoiler alert: Probably not, and
Euphoric Depression
“Alms, alms, alms for the poor homebuilders.” I don’t know how much sympathy there is
Questions, But No Answers
Nobody panic. It’s just a violent uprising. And however tense things get, history shows that
Is China’s Balance Sheet Recession Intractable?
China’s still mired in a balance sheet recession. That much is clear. What’s less clear
As The World Burns
At least in terms of scheduled events, this’ll be a slow week on the macro
France Can’t Even Save Itself, Let Alone NATO
On Saturday evening, I reluctantly read an article in Foreign Affairs by Ivo Daalder, Barack
Ukraine Fatalism Or Ukraine Realism?
Kirill Dmitriev likes it. Likes Donald Trump’s decision to suspend the implementation of triple-digit tariffs
Chipwrecked
In the context of what many believe is the largest speculative mania since the dot-com
Gloom Or Boom?
On Friday, while chatting with Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, Kevin Warsh
Weekly: Mr. Coy
In saying nothing — or anyway very little, and nothing of real substance — about
The CoreWeave Doom Spiral
At the lows on Thursday, CoreWeave was down more than 25% since the beginning of
A Wholesale, Effing Disaster
The renewed surge in energy costs, and particularly the vertical inflection for fuel prices, showed
AI Trade Bleeds Out As TSMC, Anthropic Updates Are Damp Squib
On the surface anyway, things are going fine. Just ask Taiwan Semi CFO Wendell Huang,
Mind The Control Group!
Not that you were going to, but take no solace in Thursday’s ostensible “beat” for
Cloudy With A Chance Of Zero
“Yikes.” That was my reaction to Wednesday’s US CPI report, which showed inflation across the
Yikes! Big Inflation Overshoot Upends Fed’s ‘Patience’ Message
Underlying inflation in the US ran hotter than expected last month, Wednesday’s update from the
China Still Not Tired Of ‘Winning’ On Trade
Are they “tired of winning” yet? China, I mean. Apparently not. Xi Jinping’s now guaranteed
BofA Hit By Fine, Trading Slump. Wealth, Equities Shine At Morgan Stanley
Bank of America on Wednesday reported results that fell short of consensus on both the
The Chips Are Down Again
Remember CXMT? If not, don’t worry: I didn’t either. I had to use my own
They Want 6%, Scott
6%. On 10s. That’s what it’s gonna take to tempt professional capital allocators to rotate
Meanwhile, At Goldman: More, More, More
To say Goldman’s stock traders have had a good 2026 would be an understatement, and
JPMorgan Results Are Decent Enough
The House of Dimon reported earnings that missed estimates on Tuesday. That’s not something you
Can I Interest You In This Fine $400K Wooden Box?
After three straight months of declines, and despite a steep increase in financing costs, the
Old, Rich, White People
Getting old generally sucks. I don’t think that point’s debatable. Sure, any one person’s lived
Still Cashing In
There’s a lot of cash on the proverbial sidelines. Still. There’s still a lot of
Imaginary Ceasefire
Over the weekend, Donald Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” in the Russia-Ukraine war. The moratorium
Balloon Animals
Recent Fedspeak, where that means heavyweights John Williams and Philip Jefferson leveraging public speaking engagements
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