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Featured

Weekly: A Wildfire On Wall Street

February 13, 2026February 13, 2026
  • US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat

    February 13, 2026February 13, 2026
  • Strategist Spots ‘Next Great Market Rotations’ For A ‘New World Order’

    February 13, 2026February 13, 2026
  • Corporate Bond Market Faces Sea Change In Hyper-Scaler Debt Spree

    February 12, 2026

Markets

‘Stunning’ Stock Dispersion Echoes Lehman, Dot-Com Crash

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026
  • China’s ‘Powerful’ Yuan Quietly Strengthens Amid De-Dollarization Innuendo

    February 10, 2026February 11, 2026
  • Is Alphabet’s 100-Year Bond The Bell At The Top?

    February 10, 2026February 11, 2026
  • The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away

    February 9, 2026February 10, 2026
  • Xi Tells Chinese Banks To Cut US Treasury Exposure

    February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

economy

Home Sales Crash And Burn. Ice Storm Blamed

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026
  • China’s Still A Snowball

    February 11, 2026February 12, 2026
  • What To Make Of A Wild Jobs Report

    February 11, 2026February 12, 2026
  • Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion

    February 10, 2026February 11, 2026
  • American Consumers Slam On The Brakes

    February 10, 2026February 10, 2026

Duly Noted+

The American (Pipe) Dream

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

US Employment Costs Are Still Falling

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Politics

Putin Seeks Dollar Club Readmission, Secret Memo Says

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

New CBO Forecasts Suggest Little Hope For Bessent’s Fiscal Targets

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

Takaichi Landslide Spotlights Japanese Assets Amid Spending Worries

February 8, 2026February 9, 2026

Weekly: A Wildfire On Wall Street

February 13, 2026February 13, 2026

You wouldn’t know it from the main index levels (“The Dow is over 50,000 dollars!

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7 Comments on Weekly: A Wildfire On Wall Street

US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat

February 13, 2026February 13, 2026

Friday’s inflation report out of the US looked like a non-event at first blush, with

Read More

1 Comment on US Inflation Benign With One Glaring Caveat

Strategist Spots ‘Next Great Market Rotations’ For A ‘New World Order’

February 13, 2026February 13, 2026

It was Walter — not Wayne — Gretzky who coined the maxim, “Skate to where

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12 Comments on Strategist Spots ‘Next Great Market Rotations’ For A ‘New World Order’

Putin Seeks Dollar Club Readmission, Secret Memo Says

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

Russia wants back in. To the club of US dollar users. There are two main

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5 Comments on Putin Seeks Dollar Club Readmission, Secret Memo Says

Corporate Bond Market Faces Sea Change In Hyper-Scaler Debt Spree

February 12, 2026

If you own an equity index fund that tracks a cap-weighted, large-cap benchmark which doesn’t

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8 Comments on Corporate Bond Market Faces Sea Change In Hyper-Scaler Debt Spree

Home Sales Crash And Burn. Ice Storm Blamed

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

America’s foremost housing cheerleader is “disappointed.” It’s hard to blame him. At the (considerable) risk

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Leave a Comment on Home Sales Crash And Burn. Ice Storm Blamed

The American (Pipe) Dream

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

Good news for America’s 45 million renter households: Thanks to lower mortgage rates and, secondarily,

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4 Comments on The American (Pipe) Dream

‘Stunning’ Stock Dispersion Echoes Lehman, Dot-Com Crash

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

If it feels to you like a lot’s happening across US equities in 2026 to

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3 Comments on ‘Stunning’ Stock Dispersion Echoes Lehman, Dot-Com Crash

New CBO Forecasts Suggest Little Hope For Bessent’s Fiscal Targets

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

Remember when Donald Trump and the GOP were going to cut the deficit, pay off

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6 Comments on New CBO Forecasts Suggest Little Hope For Bessent’s Fiscal Targets

China’s Still A Snowball

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

The Party in Beijing still has a lot of work to do warding off the

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3 Comments on China’s Still A Snowball

What To Make Of A Wild Jobs Report

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

Somehow, the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, a veritable miracle relative both to

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6 Comments on What To Make Of A Wild Jobs Report

Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Congratulations to Americans: They managed to score new records both for overall credit card debt

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4 Comments on Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion

China’s ‘Powerful’ Yuan Quietly Strengthens Amid De-Dollarization Innuendo

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Xi Jinping wants a “powerful” currency. Just ask him. He’ll tell you. In January of

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Leave a Comment on China’s ‘Powerful’ Yuan Quietly Strengthens Amid De-Dollarization Innuendo

US Employment Costs Are Still Falling

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Don’t look now, but US labor costs just decelerated again, where “again” means that for

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Leave a Comment on US Employment Costs Are Still Falling

American Consumers Slam On The Brakes

February 10, 2026February 10, 2026

The US consumer’s stumbling. Or at least that was the message from the Commerce Department

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3 Comments on American Consumers Slam On The Brakes

Is Alphabet’s 100-Year Bond The Bell At The Top?

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Maybe the investment grade primary market will eventually balk at absorbing a deluge of big-tech

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4 Comments on Is Alphabet’s 100-Year Bond The Bell At The Top?

Will Job Losses Spoil America’s ‘Goldilocks Plus’ Economy?

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Who’s bearish on the world’s largest economy? Overtly bearish, I mean? Nobody. The answer’s nobody.

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2 Comments on Will Job Losses Spoil America’s ‘Goldilocks Plus’ Economy?

The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Given how ubiquitous the hyper-scaler capex debate is in 2026, it’s probably dawned on a

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5 Comments on The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away

Xi Tells Chinese Banks To Cut US Treasury Exposure

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

It’s not just Danish pension operators. More often than not in recent years, the de-dollarization

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1 Comment on Xi Tells Chinese Banks To Cut US Treasury Exposure

In Japan, The Stocks Are Happy

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Spend it if you got it! Or hell, spend it even if you don’t. Lord

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3 Comments on In Japan, The Stocks Are Happy

America’s Tarnished Statistics Agency Takes Center Stage

February 8, 2026February 9, 2026

Barring another US government shutdown (don’t laugh: the situation inside the Beltway’s even more dysfunctional

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Leave a Comment on America’s Tarnished Statistics Agency Takes Center Stage

Takaichi Landslide Spotlights Japanese Assets Amid Spending Worries

February 8, 2026February 9, 2026

Sanae Takaichi’s gamble paid off. When Japan’s first female prime minister called a snap legislative

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Leave a Comment on Takaichi Landslide Spotlights Japanese Assets Amid Spending Worries

Wall Street Thinks Main Street Might Win In 2026

February 7, 2026February 9, 2026

In August of 2020, amid a late-summer melt-up in high-flying US tech stocks (remember “The

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4 Comments on Wall Street Thinks Main Street Might Win In 2026

Weekly: The All-Crushing Claude

February 6, 2026February 9, 2026

This was the week Anthropic took the lead in the AI race. Or at least

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23 Comments on Weekly: The All-Crushing Claude

Big Tech Bets Its Balance Sheet On History’s Most Expensive Moonshot

February 6, 2026February 8, 2026

“Way back” Tuesday, I noted that street forecasts for full-year hyper-scaler spending on the AI

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3 Comments on Big Tech Bets Its Balance Sheet On History’s Most Expensive Moonshot

Fear The Steepener?

February 6, 2026February 7, 2026

Don’t fear the inversion, fear the steepener. Although a bit “inside baseball” vis-à-vis the casual

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Happy Or Sad? It Depends On The Size Of Your Portfolio

February 6, 2026February 8, 2026

The Trump administration enjoyed some additional, minor relief on the consumer sentiment front Friday, when

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Monthly Letter+

  • Resignation

Recent Comments

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  • derek on Weekly: A Wildfire On Wall Street

Monthly Letters

Resignation

January 30, 2026January 30, 2026

The Noriega Analogue

January 3, 2026January 3, 2026

Bookkeepers

November 30, 2025November 30, 2025

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