America’s “golden age” manufacturing renaissance lost some of its luster in August, even as the
Category: economy
Minting Money
Corporate profits. They’re booming in America, on the off chance you didn’t notice. And no,
To Hire Or Not To Hire
Will America’s preeminent economic statistics outfit dare suggest the US economy lost jobs for a
BLS Stuns Consensus With Hiring Markdown
Surprise! The BLS’s preliminary run at the annual QCEW benchmarking exercise reflected a downward revision
Hawks In Grand Teton
I hope Jeff Schmid and Beth Hammack have their mortgage paperwork in order. On Thursday,
All That Interest Has To Go Somewhere…
Speaking of money market funds. Early Thursday, in “Money Musings,” I mentioned the ~$8 trillion
Spending Slows As Americans Grapple With Inflation
Core inflation on the Fed’s preferred gauge was a touch warmer than expected last month,
Macro’s ‘Most Important Chart’ Points To Stock Selloff
Once a month, I adopt a foreboding cadence in the course of warning readers on
America’s ‘Vibecession’ Rolls On, But Jobs Outlook Improves
American consumer moods deteriorated for a second month in August, but perceptions of the labor
No One’s Buying It
On Monday, The New Yorker‘s John Cassidy published a piece called “The Humbling Of Scott
Reclaiming The Narrative
Between them, Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh need to reclaim the narrative next week. That
Dollar Debasement Narrative Returns With A Vengeance
Macro-market headlines out of the US were inauspicious at the end of what, notwithstanding a
‘The Bessent Put’
On January 31, 2024, when he was still managing private capital as opposed to the
‘Many’ Fed Officials Reckon Inflation’s A Problem
“Several” participants at last month’s FOMC meeting wanted to raise rates in light of what
China’s Looming Crisis
I’m wary of the word “unsustainable” in the macro-market. It has an air of imminence.
Poof! The Homebuyers Just Vanished
Whaddya get when you “add” up record-high home prices, elevated (in the post-GFC context) mortgage
Summer Minutes
This’ll be a relatively quiet week on the macro front, leaving the onus for excitement
24 Weeks Later
Again and again since the pandemic, I find myself returning to the idea that what
Awful Consumer Sentiment Release Is Midterm Warning
It’s a miss! Another one. And it comes with a warning for the White House
Control Issues!
Uh-oh. A key measure of underlying demand surprised to the downside in Friday’s update on
Wholesale Inflation Rolls Over, Further Bolstering Fed Doves
Another day, another benign inflation readout for a Fed chair who’d very much like to
Oops: Home Sales Plunge To Two-Year Low In America
Good news! I’m being sarcastic already. Typically, if you see me use an exclamation point,
Warsh Gets Another Break As US Inflation Tame
Inflation across the world’s largest economy was relatively tame last month, consistent with economists’ forecasts,
If It Weren’t For The War…
Activity in America’s perennially beset resale housing market was “remarkably stable” last month, the NAR
Inflation Tallies Seen Emboldening Fed Doves
In the days ahead, Kevin Warsh will likely get more excuses to hold off on
The US Jobs Market Just Cracked
And just like that, the odds of a Fed hike in September diminished meaningfully. The
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