Gradually And Then Suddenly
“But, hey, we’re hitting our numbers just fine as it stands and, if you hadn’t noticed, our stock price hit a new high yesterday. Why mess up a good thing?”
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Mohamed El-Erian Presents: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly Of Trump’s Economy
“The administration has not helped the situation by putting the even more complex and divisive issue of healthcare before Congress ahead of important economic matters. Add to that Russia-related distractions and the economy faces the risk of completing its first year without passing key economic legislation.”
‘Billions And Billions And Billions’: ECB, BoJ, And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
If you didn’t get your fill of hand-wringing over DM central banks last week, then you’re in luck…
Progressivity Ultimately Comes At Its Own Expense
“In this way, the middle class begins to capture an increasing proportion of the benefits of social spending, leaving less for welfare services targeted exclusively at the poorest.”
CPI Misses (Again) In Blow To Fed’s ‘Transitory’ Narrative
CPI unchanged vs est. 0.1%, according to the BLS.
Ex. food, energy up 0.1% vs est. 0.2%
O, Canada! China?! Yellen Yellin’: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, well this should be an interesting week. We’ll get the BoC, which will make Bloomberg’s Luke Kawa happy because it means Canada will be in the spotlight for once. He’s got some fun Canada-themed socks we imagine he might wear on Wednesday. “The recent avalanche of hawkish messages from the BoC, as well as…
BofAML: ‘Simply Said’, Shit Just Isn’t That Volatile
You know, at a certain point this just becomes laughable and almost not worth mentioning. But then again, we need to keep track of it because if things ever do return to some semblance of normalcy, we’ll at least be able to say we were cognizant of the inherent absurdity. Everyone knows that cross-asset vol.…
Jobs Report Beats, But Average Hourly Earnings Misses
U.S. June Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 222k; Unemp. Rate at 4.4%
Avg. hourly earnings 0.2% m/m, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
Goldman Asks The Big Question: What Does The Opioid Epidemic Mean For The Economy?
“By now most people have seen at least one astonishing headline about the opioid epidemic: Opioid abuse kills about 100 Americans per day. There are as many opioid prescriptions written annually in the US as there are adults. With just 5% of the world’s population, the US consumes 80% of its opioids.”
Nomura: 3 Ways The ‘Goldilocks’ Market Could End (Now Cue The 3 Bears)
“Markets have been pricing in a Goldilocks scenario: benign growth, low inflation and slow central banks and therefore high valuations and low implied volatility.”
“A Major, Serious” Situation In Japan, PMIs Galore, And A Deadline For Qatar
Ok, so Shinzo Abe’s LDP suffered a stunning loss in Tokyo assembly elections over the weekend, winning their lowest number of seats ever, and that prompted calls for a cabinet reshuffle. “It looks like a tough situation,” LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai said on Sunday. “This is major, it’s serious,” independent political analyst Minoru Morita added. “He…
Jobs Report, Chilled Urine, And Kashkari’s Rib Roast: Full Week Ahead Preview
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for in the week ahead. After the hawkish procession in Sintra, Portugal, which catalyzed an impressive euro rally and led directly to sharply higher DM rates, it’s now all about how markets attempt to price the beginning of the end for accommodative…
And God Said “Let There Be Data: And There Was Data.”
It’s Friday and God said, “let there be data: and there was data.” Let’s start in Europe, where inflation slowed to 1.3% y/y this month from 1.4% (final) in May. That’s a bit higher than estimates. The core rate printed at 1.1% y/y, that’s also a bit higher than forecast and higher than May’s 0.9%…
Will This Be The Longest Expansion In US History? Spoiler Alert: Pray For Tax Cuts
“Beneath this optimism, however, we are struggling with narrowing profit margins and a flattening yield curve. These factors typically occur at the later stages of a business cycle.”
A Contrarian View On The Next Recession Consistent With Historical Precedent
“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
