It Would Be Great If You’d Start Using Your Credit Card… Or Would It?

“Whatever the reason, it’s probably a good bet that consumer spending will remain underwhelming until Americans feel more comfortable using their credit cards again. And while that will provide a boost to both activity and bond yields it will also, ironically enough, set the stage for the next recession.”

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It’s Quiet Out There: G-20 Leaves Markets Feeling “Damp And Grey”

It feels quiet out there. Maybe a little too quiet. There’s plenty of G-20 banter about the US/Trump having “won” at the weekend gathering in Germany. In this context, “winning” means successfully getting the “resist all forms of protectionism” language removed from the communique. Remember, in Trump/Navarro make-believe land, free trade is a bad thing, so telling everyone…

Behind The Curve? “Pussy-Cat” Yellen Confronts “Largest Dovish Policy Deviation Since The 70s”

Some folks will be talking about the Fed today. In just a few hours we’ll get a hike, but once again, it’s all about the messaging. Any kind of dovish lean would be a (bigly) surprise. What’s got some people spooked is the possibility that, in their rush to prove they aren’t behind the proverbial…

“What Blizzard? It’s A Couple Of Flakes”: Markets In Cryosleep Ahead Of Snow, Fed, Geert

Welcome to day 2 of 2 in the pre-Fed, pre-Dutch election market cryosleep. Overnight we got some econ data out of China that looks good right up until it doesn’t. Here are the numbers: CHINA JAN.-FEB. FIXED INVESTMENT RISES 8.9% Y/Y; EST 8.3% CHINA JAN.-FEB. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 6.3% Y/Y; EST 6.2% CHINA JAN.-FEB. RETAIL…

Please Fasten Your Seat Belts, Jobs Report Ahead

So obviously it was a relatively quiet overnight session as the entire world focuses on the February payrolls report, not so much because anyone outside of the US gives a sh*t about the extent to which American employers are feeling “great again” about the outlook for the economy, but rather because of the implications today’s NFP print…

With Odds Of March Mushroom Cloud Lower, Time For Trump Economic Team To “Muddy Those Expensive Loafers”

The political scientist in me is a little annoyed with some of the overnight Street commentary regarding Trump’s speech. “It was short on specifics!” traders were quick to shout. Methinks market participants suffer from a bit of myopia. That is, when you live and breathe markets, there’s a tendency to tunnel and lose sight of the…

Wall Street Reacts To “Mixed” Jobs Report

So this morning’s jobs data was, well, not very exciting. The headline print missed expectations and the unemployment rate ticked up, but it appears it would have taken a disappointment orders of magnitude larger to rattle increasingly ebullient markets. Or maybe it’s just that, as one strategist suggested early Friday, investors are reluctant to position…

Daily Kickstart (Jobs Edition)

Overnight I quoted Goldman on the way to explaining why a short yuan bias was probably still a no-brainer trade despite Thursday’s epic short-squeeze engineered by the heavy hand of the PBoC and overseen by the all-seeing eye of the Politburo: “The best times to gain exposure to $/CNY weakness have tended to be when…

Daily Kickstart (Welcome Back Japan Edition)

Markets have been rallying quite strongly on this notion of fiscal hope but, as we move into the reality of 2017 and what a Trump presidency will actually look like, there is some risk of fiscal disappointment. Any disappointment at this point could be a source of downside risk for markets from here, so we’re…