God save the homebuilders. And US housing more generally. A pair of private-sector updates painted
Category: economy
What ‘Landing’?
“Way” back in 2023, BofA started asking professional capital allocators about the most likely “landing”
China’s A Mess
The slowdown in China’s “temporary” and due in large part to “external factors.” That’s according
BLS Hands Warsh Another Excuse
There was more good news on the inflation front in the US Wednesday. A day
Kevin Warsh Makes A Promise
Don’t worry everybody: Kevin Warsh has this under control. “This” being inflation. He said as
Warsh, Trump Get Inflation Godsend
Time to cut rates! Said Donald Trump on his morning conference call with Kevin Warsh.
‘China Shock 2.0’ Narrative Gathers Steam As Exports Boom
The Chinese, um, shipped some stuff last month. More than $410 billion worth, in fact,
What If Warsh Does Take A Hike?
What happens to the S&P if Kevin Warsh hikes rates? Dumb question, I know. Because
Inflation Week
It’s inflation week in the US, where the BLS is expected to tell American households
US Home Prices Smash Record, Hit New High
The median price of resold homes in America rose to a new all-time high in
Kevin Warsh Could Do Without More War
If the ceasefire between the US and Iran is indeed “over,” as Donald Trump declared
Fed Officials Stressed Inflation Risk At Warsh’s First Meeting
Much to the chagrin of Donald Trump’s new Fed chair, who’d prefer it if macro
Decent Service
Anyone unlucky (or junior) enough to be chained to a Bloomie the day after a
Kevin’s Minutes
To say the macro docket’s limited in the new week would be an understatement. In
Questions Abound. Task Force Needed.
What’s going on with the US labor market? Nobody knows. Not really, anyway. Thursday’s underwhelming
Fed Doves Get Big Break As US Labor Market Downshifts
If Kevin Warsh wants to avoid “killing success,” as Donald Trump put it, by raising
US Factory Recovery Rolls On. Stagflation Abates
53.3. That’s my IQ after spending 15 minutes on Wednesday scrolling through Donald Trump’s TruthSocial
US Private-Sector Hiring Cools At The Margins
Private-sector employers in the US added fewer jobs than economists collectively anticipated in June, Wednesday’s
AI Job Replacement Escalates Even As Overall Layoffs Slow
Announced job cuts slowed sharply in June from the prior month, consistent with the typical
Jobs, What Jobs?
“Whatever could be wrong?” the pollster inquired, of the downcast American head of household. A
Independence Week
It’s a(nother) holiday week in the US, where markets will be closed Friday to honor
A Hawkish Epoch? Really?!
I’ve been on at considerable length since Kevin Warsh’s FOMC debut this month about the
Americans Shrug Off Inflation, Keep Spending
Underlying consumer price growth on the Fed’s preferred measure rose 3.4% last month from the
Three Hikes? Yeah Right
First thing Wednesday morning, I read an amusing tidbit on Wall Street Fed forecasting. By
Debating The Dollar
The Fed may need a presidential lecture on the many virtues of a weak dollar.
Hikes Would Only Guarantee Cuts As Fed ‘Perpetually Beholden To Equities’
Everyone’s favorite sell-sider gets it. By “it” I mean the rationale for casting a wary
It’s Hot, Kevin
The macro docket’s pretty light in the US this week, where that means the only
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