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Category: economy

As Summer Beckons, Surveys Paint Divergent Picture Of US Services

June 5, 2023June 6, 2023

US services sector activity decelerated to the brink of contraction in May, in what counted

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In Effect Until Recession

June 4, 2023June 5, 2023

If you’re inclined to suggest the recession crowd is treading dangerously close to Boy Who

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4 Comments on In Effect Until Recession

Contextless Void

June 4, 2023June 5, 2023

It should be a very quiet week for US traders. The data docket is nearly

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20 Comments on Contextless Void

US Jobs Report Is Goldilocks With Caveat

June 2, 2023June 3, 2023

The US economy added a hefty 339,000 jobs in May, hotly-anticipated data released on Friday

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4 Comments on US Jobs Report Is Goldilocks With Caveat

US Manufacturing Malaise Continues, But Disinflation Is Silver Lining

June 1, 2023June 2, 2023

The marquee gauge of US manufacturing activity spent a seventh month in contraction territory, data

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US Private Sector Hiring Blows Past All Estimates

June 1, 2023June 2, 2023

US private sector employers added 278,000 jobs in May, data released on Thursday showed. The

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1 Comment on US Private Sector Hiring Blows Past All Estimates

10.1 Million Reasons To Doubt A Soft Landing

May 31, 2023June 1, 2023

In a disconcerting development for a desperate Fed, Wednesday’s update on job openings across the

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1 Comment on 10.1 Million Reasons To Doubt A Soft Landing

US Home Prices Bottom Near Record Highs

May 30, 2023May 31, 2023

US home prices have bottomed. At record highs. I’m just joking. But not entirely. Both

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3 Comments on US Home Prices Bottom Near Record Highs

Desensitized Americans Ponder Stagflation In Confidence ‘Beat’

May 30, 2023May 31, 2023

Late last week, I described Americans as a “gloomy” bunch. On Tuesday, The Conference Board

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5 Comments on Desensitized Americans Ponder Stagflation In Confidence ‘Beat’

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

May 28, 2023June 2, 2023

Headlines in the holiday-shortened US trading week will revolve around Kevin McCarthy’s efforts to shepherd

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1 Comment on Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

For A Nation Of Spendthrifts, Americans Are A Gloomy Bunch

May 26, 2023May 28, 2023

Just 16% of US consumers expect their income gains to outrun inflation over the next

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1 Comment on For A Nation Of Spendthrifts, Americans Are A Gloomy Bunch

Americans Refuse To Stop Spending As Inflation Rises In Worrying Data

May 26, 2023May 27, 2023

Friday’s top-tier data release out of the US suggested the Fed has more work to

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4 Comments on Americans Refuse To Stop Spending As Inflation Rises In Worrying Data

Resale Inventory Shortage Continues To Plague US Homebuyers

May 25, 2023May 26, 2023

Not enough available homes! That’s the problem on the resale side of a bifurcated US

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‘Reality’ Sets In As Germany Falls Into Recession

May 25, 2023May 26, 2023

The world’s fourth-largest economy is in a recession. Or it was at the beginning of

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UK Gets Another ‘Terrible,’ ‘Crushing’ Inflation Report

May 24, 2023May 24, 2023

There was more bad economic news out of the UK on Wednesday, when inflation data

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3 Comments on UK Gets Another ‘Terrible,’ ‘Crushing’ Inflation Report

New Home Prices Plunge In Still-Distorted US Housing Market

May 23, 2023May 24, 2023

Last week, I spent some time documenting what I called the “great American housing bifurcation.”

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5 Comments on New Home Prices Plunge In Still-Distorted US Housing Market

US Services Sector Laughs At Fed Hikes

May 23, 2023May 24, 2023

Surprise! The US services sector is still running hot. If I didn’t know any better,

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1 Comment on US Services Sector Laughs At Fed Hikes

‘Greedflation’ Makes Survey Cameo, Giving ECB ‘A Headache’

May 23, 2023May 23, 2023

Europe’s factory slowdown worsened in May, even as activity in the services sector continued to

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The Hawks Are Out

May 22, 2023May 23, 2023

A pair of born-again Fed hawks suggested Monday it’s too soon for markets to assume

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‘So Many Things Can Go Wrong’

May 21, 2023May 22, 2023

If it’s evidence of moderating inflation you seek, you won’t likely find it in this

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1 Comment on ‘So Many Things Can Go Wrong’

Starry-Eyed

May 20, 2023May 21, 2023

On several occasions over the past six or so months, I’ve delved into the r-star

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3 Comments on Starry-Eyed

AI = UBI: The Coming Dystopia

May 19, 2023May 21, 2023

Earlier this year, Goldman estimated that one-fourth of current work tasks in the US could

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17 Comments on AI = UBI: The Coming Dystopia

The Great American Housing Market Bifurcation

May 18, 2023May 19, 2023

America’s is a bifurcated housing market. If you fancy yourself a macro watcher, you should

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‘We Aren’t There Yet’

May 18, 2023May 19, 2023

Some economists were surprised Thursday by the scope of the decline in US jobless claims,

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1 Comment on ‘We Aren’t There Yet’

‘You Print The Money, I Hate To Tell You’

May 17, 2023May 18, 2023

When it comes to the debt ceiling debate — and just debt in general in

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7 Comments on ‘You Print The Money, I Hate To Tell You’

Americans Herded Into New Construction Amid Acute Lack Of Resale Homes

May 16, 2023May 17, 2023

You surely didn’t “hear it here first,” but you’ve certainly heard it here a lot:

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5 Comments on Americans Herded Into New Construction Amid Acute Lack Of Resale Homes

‘That’s It?’ Markets Incredulous At Lackluster Chinese Economy

May 16, 2023May 17, 2023

China’s economic recovery is no recovery at all. Last week, I called+ the situation “vexingly

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Monthly Letter+

  • Deterioration, Dissolution And Default

    May 29, 2023May 29, 2023

Week’s News

Dam It

June 6, 2023June 6, 2023

Zeitgeist 2023

June 3, 2023June 5, 2023

US Jobs Report Is Goldilocks With Caveat

June 2, 2023June 3, 2023

Rallies And Epochs

May 31, 2023June 1, 2023

China’s Rebound ‘Over’ Amid Dour Data, ‘Miserable’ Stocks

May 31, 2023June 2, 2023

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Monthly Letters

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