Crowded Macro Agenda Takes Backseat To US Political Melee

Needless to say, macro news and market coverage will take a backseat in the coming week. Here, there and everywhere.

The attempt on Donald Trump’s life will command the vast majority of above-the-fold space in the days ahead. The investigation, the fallout and attempts to discern the ramifications — both for the election in November and for the future of the world’s foremost democracy more generally — will predominate.

And rightfully so. The failed assassination of the most controversial president in modern American history — a president who normalized and embraced violence as a legitimate form of political expression — marks the culmination of a national reckoning with demons too many to enumerate. It’s an epochal event. The biggest story on Earth. Bar none.

That said, anyone who finds their way around what promises to be blanket coverage of American politics will have a respectable menu of macro updates to peruse. US retail sales data covering June, the July ECB meeting and top-tier releases out of Beijing, including the Q2 GDP tally, are this week’s headliners.

Economists expect to hear that nominal spending on goods, bad restaurant food and bar tabs across the world’s largest economy slipped 0.2% last month. Markets will take the update with a grain of salt: Sales were doubtlessly impacted by the CDK hack and falling gas prices will weigh on the main aggregates, which aren’t adjusted for inflation.

As the figure shows, a consensus print would mark the third consecutive lackluster read on US spending and the second monthly decline in three.

The evidence now overwhelmingly suggests the US economy’s decelerating, good news for a Fed still desperate for confirmation that inflation’s on a sustainable path back down to target. The June CPI report was manna from heaven in that regard.

Of course, there’s a threshold beyond which bad news is just bad news. If nominal spending does indeed come in weak for June, that’d mean consumers were reluctant every month in Q2, not exactly the stuff healthy growth outcomes are made of in an economy that lives and dies by the consumer.

“Elevated prices, higher borrowing costs and the return of economic uncertainty are beginning to take their typical toll on spending in certain sectors,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman said. “On the flipside, record stock prices, home value appreciation and a relatively high return on savings have continued to drive growth among other segments in the economy.”

Also on deck in the US: NAHB (builder sentiment’s seen ticking higher for July to a still-subdued 44 from a YTD low of 43 in June), housing starts (economists expect a rebound from a four-year nadir) and jobless claims.

Jerome Powell has a high-profile speaking engagement scheduled for Monday (at the Economic Club of Washington, where he’ll parrot familiar talking points while sounding incrementally more optimistic on inflation than he did on Capitol Hill last week given the constructive CPI release). A bevy of other officials, including Chris Waller, will go on the record as well. A September start to rate cuts is now the expectation among traders.

Speaking of rate cuts, the ECB won’t — cut rates this week, I mean. Instead, Christine Lagarde may — or may not — tip the bank’s hand vis-à-vis the September meeting, when policymakers could deliver the second cut of an easing cycle which began last month.

In China, growth probably ran — drumroll — around 5% in Q2, conveniently in line with the Party’s target for the full year.

Investors will eye the monthly activity data from Beijing (covering June) perhaps more closely than the headline growth readout. China’s “two-speed” recovery is a source of consternation to the extent the juxtaposition between lackluster retail sales and comparatively robust factory output points to overcapacity that’ll eventually be foisted upon the rest of the world to the chagrin of politicians in Western capitals.

Oh, and CCP officials convene this week for the Third Plenum, a mass gathering of top Party brass. The stakes are high and the challenges many. Expectations, by contrast, are low, consistent with Beijing’s reluctance to engage in the kind of big-ticket, demand-side stimulus many economists insist is necessary to pull the economy out of the deflationary doldrums.


 

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7 thoughts on “Crowded Macro Agenda Takes Backseat To US Political Melee

  1. H-Man, our economy and most of the world is slowing. There is nothing in the tea leaves to suggest this is changing anytime soon. Let us hope that slowing doesn’t turn into a crash and burn.

  2. Speaking of a week dominated by politics, don’t forget the RNC. We’ll finally learn who’s the winner of The Apprentice: Veepstakes Edition.

    Out of curiosity, I had a look at betting markets. J. D. Vance is the favorite.

    Vance: 43%
    Burgum: 29%
    Rubio: 9%
    Carson: 4%
    Scott: 3%
    Youngkin: 3%

    Everyone else is sub 3%

    1. It’s one thing to look at the book on this race, but after the weekend, and given what happened to Pence on Jan 6, maybe the level of enthusiasm among the runners will flag a bit. Who among this group really wants the job now? Rubio and Youngkin may see it as an opportunity but I see them as having more enthusiasm than good sense.

        1. 🙂 who knows on that one?

          Far-sighted stock investors seem to like him as well, even though he is more of an anti-business populist than Trump. He gets it in many ways.

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