The mid-week selloff at the long-end of the US Treasury curve was exactly what Scott
Category: Duly Noted
Fearing The Right-Tail
If you’re wondering whether the bounce in US equities which had the S&P trading within
Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues
The flows rotation out of US shares and into RoW equities paused over the last
Not Out Of The Woods
The 2025 bear market plunge in US equities will be remembered as one the most
Gold: Overvalued And Overbought?
Gold. Every time I mention it, somebody gets pissed at me. With the possible exception
To Hell And Back Again?
To hell and back again. That’s one way to describe the last three or so
Efficiency Problems
The BLS on Thursday delivered a sobering read on productivity and unit labor costs. Suffice
Who Wants To Live In D.C.?
Mortgage rates in the US were lower over the past week on average. By a
Waiting On The Robots
It’s important to preface this brief update (500 words counts as “brief” ’round these parts)
The Machines Should Be Buying Stocks From Here
I’ve been on at some length since “Liberation Day” about the extent to which the
No One Likes Uncertainty
This may not have occurred to every “very stable genius” in the world, but deliberately
Is 20x The New Ceiling For US Equity Multiples?
A little over a month ago, JPMorgan suggested US equity valuations reset structurally higher over
Who Sold US Stocks?
Who is Colonel Mustard, in the library, with a candlestick? This is Jeopardy, you took
Cutting The Tails, Watching The Screens
It’s too stupid, I can’t take it. Or at least not without laughing at something
The Problem With ‘Big Move’ Days
I’ll keep this one short, but I did want to mention April 21’s Wall Street
Why Good News May Not Be Enough To Make Stocks Rally Again
What if we get good news? On tariffs or, say, on Mag7 earnings. We know
Risk Tolerance Evaporates With Liquidity
Liquidity. It’s topical. Because it’s impaired. That’s the thing about liquidity: When it’s in the
Are The Machines Done Selling?
Early Monday, I revisited “doom loop” dynamics. A fixture of modern market structure is the
Wharton Budget Model Projects Disastrous Hit To Families, GDP From Trump Tariffs
The math’s done. The verdict’s in. Tariffs are guilty as charged. On Thursday, the Penn
Trump’s ‘High People Idea’ Would Double Cost Of iPhones
Dave Chappelle’s in the news this week. As someone who was relatively young (I mean,
What Just Happened To US Treasurys?
What happened to the US long-end on Monday? That was the question — or one
US Stocks Saw Second Week Of Outflows In Tariff Unveil Lead-Up
If you were wondering, US equities saw more outflows in the lead up to “Liberation
Bad Apple?
Bill Gross doesn’t think you should buy the dip. “Investors should not try to ‘catch
2025’s Treasury Rally Is ‘Clear Nod To Stagflation’
Donald Trump and Scott Bessent wanted to get 10-year US Treasury yields down, and they
Who’s Really Ready For A De-Globalized World?
Virtue signaling. I hear it a lot from some corners of Wall Street these days
More ‘Correction Reflections’
If you’re immersed in the market narrative — and you are, otherwise you wouldn’t be
Bear Market In Melt-Up Bets Points To Rally Pain Trade
What’s the “pain trade” in US assets going forward? If you read “The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis
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