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Category: Duly Noted

Well Hello, Liz!

May 21, 2025

The mid-week selloff at the long-end of the US Treasury curve was exactly what Scott

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5 Comments on Well Hello, Liz!

Fearing The Right-Tail

May 19, 2025

If you’re wondering whether the bounce in US equities which had the S&P trading within

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Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues

May 16, 2025May 16, 2025

The flows rotation out of US shares and into RoW equities paused over the last

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1 Comment on Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues

Not Out Of The Woods

May 14, 2025May 14, 2025

The 2025 bear market plunge in US equities will be remembered as one the most

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2 Comments on Not Out Of The Woods

Gold: Overvalued And Overbought?

May 13, 2025May 13, 2025

Gold. Every time I mention it, somebody gets pissed at me. With the possible exception

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3 Comments on Gold: Overvalued And Overbought?

To Hell And Back Again?

May 12, 2025May 12, 2025

To hell and back again. That’s one way to describe the last three or so

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Efficiency Problems

May 8, 2025May 8, 2025

The BLS on Thursday delivered a sobering read on productivity and unit labor costs. Suffice

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2 Comments on Efficiency Problems

Who Wants To Live In D.C.?

May 7, 2025May 7, 2025

Mortgage rates in the US were lower over the past week on average. By a

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Waiting On The Robots

May 5, 2025May 5, 2025

It’s important to preface this brief update (500 words counts as “brief” ’round these parts)

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3 Comments on Waiting On The Robots

The Machines Should Be Buying Stocks From Here

May 1, 2025

I’ve been on at some length since “Liberation Day” about the extent to which the

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5 Comments on The Machines Should Be Buying Stocks From Here

No One Likes Uncertainty

April 28, 2025April 28, 2025

This may not have occurred to every “very stable genius” in the world, but deliberately

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2 Comments on No One Likes Uncertainty

Is 20x The New Ceiling For US Equity Multiples?

April 25, 2025April 25, 2025

A little over a month ago, JPMorgan suggested US equity valuations reset structurally higher over

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2 Comments on Is 20x The New Ceiling For US Equity Multiples?

Who Sold US Stocks?

April 24, 2025

Who is Colonel Mustard, in the library, with a candlestick? This is Jeopardy, you took

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1 Comment on Who Sold US Stocks?

Cutting The Tails, Watching The Screens

April 23, 2025

It’s too stupid, I can’t take it. Or at least not without laughing at something

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5 Comments on Cutting The Tails, Watching The Screens

The Problem With ‘Big Move’ Days

April 21, 2025April 21, 2025

I’ll keep this one short, but I did want to mention April 21’s Wall Street

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5 Comments on The Problem With ‘Big Move’ Days

Why Good News May Not Be Enough To Make Stocks Rally Again

April 17, 2025April 17, 2025

What if we get good news? On tariffs or, say, on Mag7 earnings. We know

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1 Comment on Why Good News May Not Be Enough To Make Stocks Rally Again

Risk Tolerance Evaporates With Liquidity

April 15, 2025

Liquidity. It’s topical. Because it’s impaired. That’s the thing about liquidity: When it’s in the

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2 Comments on Risk Tolerance Evaporates With Liquidity

Are The Machines Done Selling?

April 14, 2025April 14, 2025

Early Monday, I revisited “doom loop” dynamics. A fixture of modern market structure is the

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3 Comments on Are The Machines Done Selling?

Wharton Budget Model Projects Disastrous Hit To Families, GDP From Trump Tariffs

April 10, 2025

The math’s done. The verdict’s in. Tariffs are guilty as charged. On Thursday, the Penn

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6 Comments on Wharton Budget Model Projects Disastrous Hit To Families, GDP From Trump Tariffs

Trump’s ‘High People Idea’ Would Double Cost Of iPhones

April 9, 2025April 9, 2025

Dave Chappelle’s in the news this week. As someone who was relatively young (I mean,

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3 Comments on Trump’s ‘High People Idea’ Would Double Cost Of iPhones

What Just Happened To US Treasurys?

April 7, 2025April 7, 2025

What happened to the US long-end on Monday? That was the question — or one

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4 Comments on What Just Happened To US Treasurys?

US Stocks Saw Second Week Of Outflows In Tariff Unveil Lead-Up

April 6, 2025April 6, 2025

If you were wondering, US equities saw more outflows in the lead up to “Liberation

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Bad Apple?

April 3, 2025

Bill Gross doesn’t think you should buy the dip. “Investors should not try to ‘catch

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9 Comments on Bad Apple?

2025’s Treasury Rally Is ‘Clear Nod To Stagflation’

April 1, 2025

Donald Trump and Scott Bessent wanted to get 10-year US Treasury yields down, and they

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2 Comments on 2025’s Treasury Rally Is ‘Clear Nod To Stagflation’

Who’s Really Ready For A De-Globalized World?

March 27, 2025March 27, 2025

Virtue signaling. I hear it a lot from some corners of Wall Street these days

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6 Comments on Who’s Really Ready For A De-Globalized World?

More ‘Correction Reflections’

March 26, 2025

If you’re immersed in the market narrative — and you are, otherwise you wouldn’t be

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Bear Market In Melt-Up Bets Points To Rally Pain Trade

March 24, 2025

What’s the “pain trade” in US assets going forward? If you read “The ‘Less-Bad’ Thesis

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3 Comments on Bear Market In Melt-Up Bets Points To Rally Pain Trade

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