Core inflation in the US ran the fastest in nearly two years to start 2026,
Category: Duly Noted
Priced For Chaos When Nothing Ever Happens
Earlier this week, in “Where’s The Iran War Stock Crash?,” I highlighted the disparity between,
US Spending Impulse Loses Momentum
Although a bit of an afterthought on a day when oil shocks and job losses
In US Housing, Sixes Now Outnumber Threes
One of the biggest supply-side impediments to a US housing market thaw is the so-called
Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales
Boy, I’ll tell you what: US housing’s in a bad, bad way. I realize this
Cheap Stocks Are Going Extinct
Where can one find some cheap stocks? Put differently, where are the bargains in the
Down Payment Burden Emerges As Biggest Homebuyer Hurdle
It’s a familiar dynamic: Mortgage rates in the US fell, prompting an uptick in refis
Loan Growth In China Plunges To New Record Low
Someone suggested this week that China will exit deflation in 2026. That’s not a strawman.
The American (Pipe) Dream
Good news for America’s 45 million renter households: Thanks to lower mortgage rates and, secondarily,
US Employment Costs Are Still Falling
Don’t look now, but US labor costs just decelerated again, where “again” means that for
White Collar Job Openings Evaporate In America
The hits just keep comin’. Shortly after a trio of private-sector updates cast a pall
Trick Question: How’s Earnings Season Going So Far?
How’s earnings season going so far in the US? That’s a trick question. Don’t answer
Don’t Look Now, But Wholesale Inflation’s Heating Up In America
Don’t look now (because no one else will on a day when flashier headlines predominated),
As Mag7 Results Begin, This Is The Most Important Question…
As Mag7 results roll in, the most important question for the world’s most important companies
Fed’s Favored Inflation Metric Still Tame (Read The Fine Print)
“Refer to ‘Technical Notes’ for information on how the BEA imputed missing BLS prices.” That
Seller-Buyer Imbalance Goes Vertical As Pending Home Sales Plunge
A mid-week update on the marquee gauge of contract activity across America’s still-beset resale housing
Jobless Claims Don’t Want To Hear Your Recession Narrative
Jobless claims: They’re low in the US. And that’s an understatement. With the caveat that
US Housing Perks Up As Industry Debates Trump’s GSE Gambit
A “tough” year for the resale US housing market ended on a high note, data
US Employers Were Hiring As The Calendar Flipped
Another week, another decent read on a high-frequency proxy for private payroll growth in the
Now Hiring. Or At Least Not Firing
The overall US hiring impulse was the strongest in eight months in December, a private-sector
America’s ‘Jobs-Jobless’ Ratio Tumbles To Lowest Since 2021
If you were curious, job openings across the world’s largest economy plunged in November, a
What Labor Market Weakness? US Jobless Claims Dive Anew
Is it even worth documenting US jobless claims anymore? I honestly don’t know, because as
Did Tesla Just Deliver A Stealth Sales Warning?
Was that a stealth sales warning? In a move one observer described as “highly unusual,”
Is The US Hiring Slowdown Already Over?
Another week, another decent showing for a “real-time” US labor market indicator. Note the scare
The Best Liquidity Conditions Ever?
With the Fed all set to begin reserve management buying of T-bills (and, “if necessary,”
Is The US Labor Market Re-Heating Behind The Scenes?
On a day when delayed and distorted BLS data failed to assuage concerns about an
Was 2025 The Worst Year Ever For US Homebuilders?
It’s probably fair to call 2025 one of the worst years ever for homebuilder sentiment
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