The term premium is positive again. Maybe you heard. Actually, you probably didn’t hear. This
Category: Duly Noted
Why Marko Kolanovic Sees A ‘Rate Shock’ Reckoning
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic doesn’t agree with the notion that the majority of the drag from
Another Word On America’s Unprecedented Deposit Drop
I’m supposed to say something meaningful about an unprecedented decline in US bank deposits. The
Is Another Treasury Basis Blowup Coming?
If it’s possible to write a scary-sounding or otherwise foreboding basis trade story, somebody will
Meanwhile, In Taiwan
Every month, I provide a brief update on what I consider to be two reasonably
Kolanovic, JPMorgan Warn Against Dismissing Yield Curve Canary
I’ve been irreverent at times about the yield curve as a recession predictor. I instinctually
The Flows Behind Last Week’s Stock Selloff
Surprise! Last week’s selloff in US equities, the worst since March, was in no small
Treasury Yields ‘Vulnerable To A Pullback,’ Goldman Says
“We think bond yields are vulnerable to a pullback.” So said Goldman’s Praveen Korapaty in
US Equity Funds Suffer Largest Outflow Of 2023
The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away. It was just a week ago when
Money Fund Assets Slip From Record With First Outflow Since August
Money market fund AUM retreated from record highs in the week to September 20, data
‘Simply Wait Until Something Goes Wrong’
On Thursday, in “Fade The Fed,” I suggested it might be time to… well, time
Is It Time For A Cascading, Mechanical Stock Selloff?
Is it time for a cascading stock selloff? Maybe. Thursday’s bear steepening in the US
Macro Shock Needed Amid ‘Aloof’ Vol, McElligott Says
You’ve heard it again and again. Or at least you have if you frequent these
‘Who’s Left’ To Buy Tech? The Case For A More Egalitarian Rally
“Read my lips: Equal-weighted over cap-weighted index.” So insisted BofA’s Savita Subramanian on Wednesday, while
The Road To Mutual Assured Economic Destruction
When taken together, Xi Jinping’s ill-conceived economic nationalism and Western efforts to de-risk supply chains
Germany’s Ongoing Lesson: You Can’t Depend On Dictators
Germany is learning the hard way: You can’t depend on authoritarian regimes and autocracies for
Dollar Shorts Washed Out Ahead Of Fed
I’ve been on at some length recently about the dollar, and specifically about recent dollar
Kolanovic: Real Rate, Stock Valuation Disconnect ‘Increasingly Unsustainable’
It’s a familiar refrain: The re-rating behind 2023’s US equity rally is incongruous with elevated
‘Sell Prem, Live The Dream’: Vol-Selling Has Never Been More Reliable
It’s virtually never been more reliably profitable to sell vol. I’ve been over this and
Connecting The (FOMC) Dots
Given that the Fed almost surely isn’t going to raise rates on Wednesday, it might
The Dollar As A Petrocurrency
A week ago, I asked how much further the dollar could run. The greenback was
Will The Fed Tacitly Adopt A Higher Inflation Target?
There’s a suspicion in some corners that the Fed, for all its bluster about being
Money Market Fund AUM Scales Yet Another New Peak
Another week, another new record for money market fund assets. Money funds took in nearly
Calm With A Chance Of Fireworks
Time and again over the past several months, I’ve revisited the post-SVB vol crunch. This
A Word On Bear Steepening
You wouldn’t know it if your only frame of reference is the post-Lehman world, but
Stocks Struggling With Rising Yields, Good News Is Bad News: Goldman
Goldman’s not bearish, but they aren’t bullish either. The bank remains risk neutral, according to
Gamma Gravity
If it feels to you like US equities are having a tough time realizing that
