You need a PLUS account to view this content. Try one month of PLUS for FREE.
Already have an account? log in
‘Everybody’s An Economic Populist Now’
I don't want to dwell too much on hypothetical US election outcomes given the myriad factors playing
My working assumption is that Trump -> higher inflation, lower rates, higher deficits, higher risk of disruption/dysfunction.
CRFB seems to agree on the deficit part.
https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans
An additional concern in a Trump victory is his stated desire to expand tariffs in a return to the interwar period of extreme protectionism. The replacement of goods previously imported by domestic firms will be slow (depending on capital nature of business) or non existent, both alternatives will have big inflationary impacts. Tie this into his stated desire to expel significant numbers of immigrants ( legal or illegal) and I foresee huge inflation and extraordinary economic contraction. Basically Argentina. Precious metals, canned goods and forgive me ( even I am embarrassed) bitcoin appear to be long investment opportunities.