Wilson Upgrades Cyclicals As Bonds Say Jobs Report Not One-Off

The red-hot September jobs report was a game-changer in at least one respect: It compelled one of Wall Street’s most well-known equity strategists to upgrade Cyclicals.

In a Monday note, stalwart “bear” (with the scare quotes to denote that he’s not always overtly bearish, contrary to popular belief) Mike Wilson said quality cyclicals are the place to be.

After reiterating that a strongly positive rates-equity correlation clearly evidences a “good news is good news” macro-market regime, Wilson said “‘good’ will be particularly ‘good'” for stocks with “upside exposure to better macro data.”

That’s cyclicals, but he was (very) keen to differentiate between “strong” and “weak.” You want decent balance sheets in order to give you some protection from rising yields in the face of resilient macro data.

The annotated figure above, from Wilson, gives you some context.

“The bond market appears to have taken the labor data as a clear sign of economic resiliency rather than a one-off data point,” Wilson went on. In the wake of the jobs report, “both stocks and bonds appear to be more confident in the soft landing outcome, and this should support more cyclical leadership in equities.”

At the same time, higher yields could dent some defensives — they’re bond proxies, after all. Wilson’s decision to upgrade cyclicals comes two weeks after he removed his defensive overweight.


 

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