China Initiates Easing Blitz With Biggest-Ever MLF Cut

As expected, China cut the rate on one-year policy loans Wednesday, a day on from Pan Gongsheng’s big stimulus unveil.

I realize this is terribly tedious, but we’re either interested or we aren’t. And I suppose we are.

To briefly recapitulate, the one-year MLF rate (the rate the PBoC cut on Wednesday) served as the de facto policy tool until a few months ago, when the PBoC shifted to signaling the market with short-tenor repo. Banks set two key consumer lending rates — the one- and five-year loan prime rates — based off the MLF rate.

Wednesday’s cut — 30bps — was the largest ever. One-year MLF now sits at 2%. So, on the brink of a one-handle.

Note that today’s move came just two months after a 20bps cut, which itself counted as large.

What does this mean, exactly? Well, again, the PBoC’s effectively sidelining MLF — subordinating the rate and managing liquidity through other facilities and tools, including the reserve requirement ratio. Despite the cut, the PBoC actually drained MLF liquidity on Wednesday by the most in years, some CNY290 billion. Those net withdrawals may continue in the months ahead alongside additional RRR cuts, with the latter offsetting the former, and then some. Recall that Tuesday’s stimulus unveil included a 50bps RRR cut that Pan said would free up CNY1 trillion for lending.

Wednesday’s MLF cut was notable for an apparent regime shift in the bidding process: Banks can now influence the rate with their bids for the funding. Those bids were as low as 1.9% which, not coincidentally, is at or around the market — i.e., interbank — rate.

In any event, key rates in China — all of them — are going to be cut in the months ahead. Or “soon,” as Pan put it.


 

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3 thoughts on “China Initiates Easing Blitz With Biggest-Ever MLF Cut

  1. So, jump ahead, what does China do next when this doesn’t work? Will Xi tell Pan to keep pushing on the string, take lending rates to zero? If demand for loans is the problem, will they start pressuring companies and people to borrow more, and how?

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