Someone suggested this week that China will exit deflation in 2026. That’s not a strawman.
Category: Duly Noted
The American (Pipe) Dream
Good news for America’s 45 million renter households: Thanks to lower mortgage rates and, secondarily,
US Employment Costs Are Still Falling
Don’t look now, but US labor costs just decelerated again, where “again” means that for
White Collar Job Openings Evaporate In America
The hits just keep comin’. Shortly after a trio of private-sector updates cast a pall
Trick Question: How’s Earnings Season Going So Far?
How’s earnings season going so far in the US? That’s a trick question. Don’t answer
Don’t Look Now, But Wholesale Inflation’s Heating Up In America
Don’t look now (because no one else will on a day when flashier headlines predominated),
As Mag7 Results Begin, This Is The Most Important Question…
As Mag7 results roll in, the most important question for the world’s most important companies
Fed’s Favored Inflation Metric Still Tame (Read The Fine Print)
“Refer to ‘Technical Notes’ for information on how the BEA imputed missing BLS prices.” That
Seller-Buyer Imbalance Goes Vertical As Pending Home Sales Plunge
A mid-week update on the marquee gauge of contract activity across America’s still-beset resale housing
Jobless Claims Don’t Want To Hear Your Recession Narrative
Jobless claims: They’re low in the US. And that’s an understatement. With the caveat that
US Housing Perks Up As Industry Debates Trump’s GSE Gambit
A “tough” year for the resale US housing market ended on a high note, data
US Employers Were Hiring As The Calendar Flipped
Another week, another decent read on a high-frequency proxy for private payroll growth in the
Now Hiring. Or At Least Not Firing
The overall US hiring impulse was the strongest in eight months in December, a private-sector
America’s ‘Jobs-Jobless’ Ratio Tumbles To Lowest Since 2021
If you were curious, job openings across the world’s largest economy plunged in November, a
What Labor Market Weakness? US Jobless Claims Dive Anew
Is it even worth documenting US jobless claims anymore? I honestly don’t know, because as
Did Tesla Just Deliver A Stealth Sales Warning?
Was that a stealth sales warning? In a move one observer described as “highly unusual,”
Is The US Hiring Slowdown Already Over?
Another week, another decent showing for a “real-time” US labor market indicator. Note the scare
The Best Liquidity Conditions Ever?
With the Fed all set to begin reserve management buying of T-bills (and, “if necessary,”
Is The US Labor Market Re-Heating Behind The Scenes?
On a day when delayed and distorted BLS data failed to assuage concerns about an
Was 2025 The Worst Year Ever For US Homebuilders?
It’s probably fair to call 2025 one of the worst years ever for homebuilder sentiment
US Jobless Claims Soar As Turkey Distortion Disappears
The holiday-impacted plunge in initial US jobless claims was an anomaly. Who could’ve known? Last
US Hiring Registers A Pulse, Small Business Worry Grows
Good news: The trend in US private sector hiring improved late last month. That was
Holiday-Impacted Claims Plunge Is Meaningless
Mind the holiday distortion. I’ll say it again: Mind the holiday distortion. I’m not necessarily
Green Shoots? US Home Purchase Apps Hit 33-Month High
Don’t look now, but a key measure of purchase activity in the still-beset US housing
Behold: Rent Deflation
Good news for America’s renters. That’s something I don’t say very often. Maybe I shouldn’t
Spare A Thought For America’s Impoverished Retail Workers
As Black Friday approaches and America enters the holiday shopping season, spare a thought for
Meanwhile, In US Housing…
Good news, although I realize most of you aren’t here for that. Contract activity in
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