Don’t look now, but the dollar’s on track for its best month since the “dollar
Category: Duly Noted
The Term Premium’s Back
If you think “way” back to this time last year, you might vaguely recall something
Landing Secured?
There’s talk of a Fed pause. Who could’ve seen that coming? I don’t relish “I
It’s The Liquidity!
I have a love-hate relationship with liquidity-based explanations for risk-asset behavior. It’s self-evidently the case
Corporate Equity Bid May Hit $1 Trillion In 2025
Who’s going to buy the stocks? Or, put differently, who’s going to buy stakes in
‘Everybody’s An Economic Populist Now’
I don’t want to dwell too much on hypothetical US election outcomes given the myriad
‘The Stock Selloff Is Canceled,’ Rubner Says
Looking for a simple bull case? Of course you are. Who’s going to turn down
Buckle Up For A 2.5% Stock ‘Crash’
It’s probably fair to suggest the unofficial “consensus” on Wall Street is year-end stock rally.
Another Modern Market Melt-Up?
If US equities felt melt-up-ish to you midway through Monday’s bond market holiday, it wasn’t
Hedge Funds ‘Rapidly’ Sold Chinese Stocks This Week
I’ve cautioned recently against reading too much into a monumental rally in Chinese shares. My
Are We Still In A FOMO Regime?
Are we still living in a FOMO regime? How would one go about determining such
Wilson Upgrades Cyclicals As Bonds Say Jobs Report Not One-Off
The red-hot September jobs report was a game-changer in at least one respect: It compelled
2024 Stock Inflows Near Half-Trillion. MMF AUM Swells Further
On the heels of a near $65 billion two-week bonanza, inflows to global equity funds
Hedge Funds Won’t Stick Around In China Unless Xi Delivers
On Thursday, a reader suggested, not implausibly, that a recent high-profile bull call on Chinese
The Yen Rollercoaster Continues
Remember the Shigeru Ishiba yen rally? If so, you should know that it’s over now.
Meanwhile, In The Equity Vol Space
US markets traded with a risk-off vibe to kick off Q4 in the presence of
Asia’s Favorite Trade Goes Wrong-Way
Where’d the money come from? What was the source of funds for Monday’s pre-holiday buying
Money Funds, Stock ETFs Inundated In 2024 Flow Bonanza
Meanwhile, on the flows front. US money market funds just saw one of their largest
China Initiates Easing Blitz With Biggest-Ever MLF Cut
As expected, China cut the rate on one-year policy loans Wednesday, a day on from
Goldman’s Scott Rubner Sees Year-End Rally, 2025 ‘RINO’ Trade
A “year-end melt-up.” That’s what Goldman’s Scott Rubner sees, although he suspects equities could be
The Risk-On, Risk-Off Fed-Jobs Tactical Equity Matrix
I’m going to eschew the temptation to make jokes about highly-paid forecasters stating the obvious.
US Stock Funds Took In $34 Billion In FOMC Lead-Up
Investors were back into stocks like they left something in the days leading up to
Melt-Up Mechanics
In the lead-up to the September FOMC meeting, professional investors polled for BofA’s monthly fund
Cutting The Left-Tail
Evercore’s Ed Hyman gets it. “If they don’t do 50 tomorrow I’ll be shocked,” Hyman,
Reflexivity Revisited: What Happens If The Fed Disappoints?
I spent some time late last week talking about the Fed’s reflexivity dynamic with markets,
Stock Funds Just Saw Their First Outflow Since April
Don’t look now, but global equities just saw their first weekly outflow since April. $3.7
Stratospheric Cash Mountain Grows Still Taller As MMF Inflows Persist
It just keeps going and going and going and… US money funds saw a sixth
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