Good news: The trend in US private sector hiring improved late last month.

That was the main takeaway from ADP’s high-frequency update which showed that in the four-week period ahead of Thanksgiving, private-sector employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week.

As the figure below shows, this was the first positive readout on ADP’s new (or new-to-the-public, anyway) metric since mid-October.

“This week’s positive number hints at an upswing,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson remarked, adding that the data’s preliminary and subject to revisions.

Last week, ADP said private employers shed a net 32,000 jobs in November. It was the worst monthly read since early 2023, and it was a direct consequence of a 120,000 mass layoff among businesses with fewer than 50 employees, which is to say small businesses.

The figure above shows you ADP small business hiring since Trump’s reelection plotted with the NFIB’s small business optimism index, which ticked higher in Tuesday’s update for November but remains well off the euphoric post-election peak.

Richardson addressed small employers in her editorial. “November’s small business job losses are worrying,” she wrote. “Small employers historically have been a bellwether for the macro economy [as] Main Street businesses are more vulnerable to macro headwinds, and they’re typically the first to respond to slowing economic conditions.”

She offered a gentle reminder: Employers with fewer than 50 people on the payroll account for more than 40% of total US employment.