Was that a stealth sales warning?

In a move one observer described as “highly unusual,” Tesla published a compilation of analysts’ deliveries estimates for Q4 which appeared to tip a sharper-than-expected decline.

“Please find below the latest company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts,” the IR department politely chirped, in a press release, setting up a table which featured this overall figure: 422,850.

If that’s accurate, it’s a problem. Consensus as it stood prior to the seemingly ad hoc update was closer to 441,000.

The figure above gives you a sense of what’s implied. The 15% YoY decline would exceed double-digit drops notched in Q1 and Q2.

Tesla noted that it doesn’t “endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions” made by sell-side analysts, but there’s only one reason to release this information: To recalibrate expectations, in this case lower.