Is The US Hiring Slowdown Already Over?

Another week, another decent showing for a “real-time” US labor market indicator.

Note the scare quotes. ADP’s weekly “pulse” figures aren’t all that timely if we’re being honest. It’s a four-week rolling measure reported on a two-week delay.

Still, at a time when the BLS is under a lot of pressure politically — prompting market participants to question the veracity of the official government jobs tally — investors will take whatever they can get from the private sector.

This week’s high frequency update from ADP showed the pace of net private-sector hiring slowed in the period ended December 6, but still suggested employers were hiring a meaningful number of workers each week.

As the (updated) figure reminds you, this measure rebounded late last month following a swoon during the shutdown.

Specifically, private employers added an average of 11,500 jobs a week during the latest four-week period for which data’s available to the public.

The prior week’s pace, which you’ll recall was the highest for any week since ADP began releasing the data, was revised to show an even quicker, 17,500, average weekly hiring impulse.

So who knows: Maybe the hiring slowdown’s already behind us. The ADP update was released just as the BEA said the US economy grew at the quickest rate in two years just prior to the shutdown.


 

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One thought on “Is The US Hiring Slowdown Already Over?

  1. You could read this two ways. Hiring is picking up! We’re saved from recession! Or, no landing, running it hot, trapping a soon-to-be-captured central bank where the Fed will choose Treasury solvency but lose inflation credibility.

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