The US economy expanded at a — get this — 4.3% clip in Q3, according to government data released on Tuesday.

The advance estimate of last quarter’s growth figures was nixed by the shutdown, leaving the second estimate as the “initial” readout.

On the surface anyway, 4.3% counts as blistering. In fact, it’s the briskest pace in two years, and it topped consensus by a full point. (More, actually.)

Recall that the prior quarter’s headline growth pace was marked up to 3.8% over two revisions. So, Q3’s print counts as a second consecutive barnburner.

The data’s still picking up some noise from the trade shakeup. Net exports were again a big contributor, accounting for 1.59ppt of the headline, the most since 2022 excluding the prior quarter’s anomalous rebound from the Q1 earthquake.

That said, personal consumption was strong, rising 3.5%, the fastest since Q4 of last year. Spending accounted for 2.39ppt of the overall growth print.

The figure above shows the full breakdown by major category. Note that business investment rose 2.8% following 7.3% in Q2 and 9.5% in Q1. Nonresidential investment’s share of the headline was 0.4ppt.

The final sales to domestic purchasers line — a key metric monitored by economists — was solid at 2.9%. The real average of GDP and GDI — which the NBER uses for cycle and recession dating — was 3.4%, a resounding encore following 3.2% the prior quarter and best readout since Q4 of 2023.

As for the price gauges, the price index rose sharply to 3.8%, but the quarterly core PCE print was an in-line 2.9%.

All in all, this was a very (dare I say suspiciously) robust snapshot of the US economy for Q3. Although the Q4 figures will probably reflect drag from the shutdown (not to mention the faltering labor market), this release certainly didn’t argue for additional Fed cuts.