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Trick Question: How’s Earnings Season Going So Far?
How's earnings season going so far in the US?
That's a trick question. Don't answer it. The game's
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The casino operators are happy to tell you what you want to hear. The cocktail waitresses refilling your bottomless drink keep whispering in your ear how much others are winning around the room. Don’t worry, your turn to win is coming soon. As one state’s lotto used to broadcast endlessly ‘You can’t win if you don’t play’! The investment market has a game with buy-in stakes to fit anyone’s weak spot. Who needs the $2 table when you can buy $0.83 of Apple stock any time night or day. If you’re really desperate, take a shot at a meme stock like Hertz. That $0.83 might be worth $2 by noon OR $0.10 by 4 PM.
My God, aren’t all these investors simply reacting to changes in earnings forecasts? Don’t earnings drive stock prices?
“…in the absence of some definitive reason to expect a so-called “hard stop.”
In today’s environment, that’s actually a pretty chilling sentence. Probably wasn’t meant that way. At least I hope so!
My 4Q tracking. 35% by name / 48% by cap of the SP500 has reported. 65% / 80% beat revenue consensus, 79% / 86% beat EPS cons. 56% / 71% saw next qtr rev cons go up, 43% / 63% saw NQ EPS cons up. Avg reaction to earnings is -0.1% / -0.5%. From memory, this is better than 3Q.