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Fine Print Throws Cold Water On Wild US Factory Rebound
"We are so back."
Factory activity in America picked up dramatically at the beginning of 2026, acco
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The participant comments are very negative. Respondents say they can’t plan or forecast, are cutting costs as profits weaken, trying to move production but don’t know where tariffs will hit next. Perhaps we’re in a period where you draw down your inventories and reorder just in time as tariff windows open and close. Perhaps businesses are betting on IEEPA tariffs being struck down and either receiving their ocean containers after that or getting tariffs refunded. Or maybe there is a manufacturing renaissance blooming and the ISM somehow quoted only the companies that haven’t gotten the memo.
A look at manufacturing project starts posts a very optimistic picture of the future given the surge last year. Any thoughts on the contradiction here?