Good news, although I realize most of you aren’t here for that.
Contract activity in the desolate resale market for US homes picked up a third month in October, according to Tuesday’s update on the marquee measure of pending sales.
The 1.9% month-to-month increase doesn’t sound like a big jump (and it isn’t), but consensus expected a small decline, so we’re actually talking about a meaningful beat here.
As the figure shows, the index — which made a succession of new lows during what’s now a multi-year downturn for existing home sales — is the highest in 11 months.
The data came on the heels of a relatively (and I really can’t emphasize that word enough in this context) upbeat read on existing home sales, and at a time when sellers outnumber buyers by the most in at least a dozen years.
“Days on the market typically lengthen from November through February, providing better negotiating power to buyers during the holiday season,” the NAR’s Lawrence Yun said Tuesday, suggesting buyers can look forward to even more leverage in the months ahead.
Of course, as Redfin’s Lily Katz gently noted last week, it’s only a buyer’s market if you can afford to buy, and a lot of folks can’t.
Earlier Tuesday, Case-Shiller data for September showed annual price growth on the widely-cited 20-city index slowed to just 1.36%.
As the figure shows, September marks the fourth straight month during which real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) housing wealth contracted in America.
“The geographic rotation is striking,” S&P’s Nicholas Godec remarked, editorializing around the numbers. “Markets that were pandemic darlings — particularly in Florida, Arizona and Texas — are now experiencing outright price declines [while] traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to pre-pandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics.”
Commenting further on the pending home sales figures for October, Yun suggested the US economy “is not slipping into a recession.” “This may boost confidence in future homebuying,” he added.


