Don’t Look Now, But Wholesale Inflation’s Heating Up In America

Don’t look now (because no one else will on a day when flashier headlines predominated), but wholesale inflation is heating up in America.

The BLS on Friday said factory gate prices rose 0.5% last month, more than double the prior month’s pace, a mile above consensus and the quickest since July.

The culprit was services, which printed a 0.7% MoM gain. That was the second-fastest in a year.

As the figure shows, the ex-food and energy gauge likewise came in at 0.7%, more than triple consensus.

There’s a margins story here. As the BLS noted, two-thirds of the jump on the services index was attributable to changes in margins for final demand trade services.

Drilling down further, the culprit was a 4.5% increase in margins for machinery and equipment wholesaling.

Long story short, we’re seeing some tariff pass-through. Not everyone’s eating the cost of the trade levies. And on the goods side, it’s worth noting that the core measure showed a 0.4% gain — declines on the food and energy indexes offset that, leaving the broad goods gauge flat for the month.

On a YoY basis, the headline and core PPI indexes posted 3% and 3.3% advances, respectively. Both of those readouts were markedly higher than expected.


 

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