Is The US Labor Market Re-Heating Behind The Scenes?

On a day when delayed and distorted BLS data failed to assuage concerns about an apparently lackluster overall hiring impulse across the world’s largest economy, a higher-frequency indicator quietly tipped a re-acceleration.

ADP’s weekly update on private sector hiring still doesn’t get a lot of attention two months on from its introduction to the investing public, but it’s worth monitoring, particularly given pervasive concerns about data quality at the BLS.

Tuesday’s readout, for the four-week period ending November 29, suggested private employers added 16,250 jobs on average over that stretch.

As the figure above shows, that’s (easily) the best read on this indicator since it’s been publicly available.

“This continued strengthening during the second half of November signals a rebound in hiring after four weeks of job losses,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said Tuesday, adding the usual caveat: The figures are preliminary and subject to revision.

To reiterate: I’m not suggesting this is definitive evidence of anything. All I’m saying is that if you doubt the BLS, as many now do, ADP’s the next best thing. And according to this more timely indicator, the private sector’s hiring again.


 

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