Another week, another decent read on a high-frequency proxy for private payroll growth in the US.

I know, I know: Blah, blah, blah. This isn’t the most exciting release in the macro universe, but either we want more timely — and, just as important in an era when no one trusts the government data, independently-produced — updates on the US labor market or we don’t.

According to ADP’s rolling four-week metric, which the payrolls firm began releasing to the public late last year, private hiring for the four weeks ending December 20 (“timely” doesn’t mean real-time) averaged 11,750.

There’s the updated chart. Following a swoon during the government shutdown, this metric rebounded and has now posted five consecutive advances, with the latest among the strongest.

This is consistent with a narrative that says the labor market’s recovered some modest momentum after hiring basically flatlined. Both ADP’s monthly tally for December and the BLS release suggested the same, as did Challenger hiring plans for last month.

Commenting on the data, BMO’s Ian Lyngen said inflation updates in the US have now “taken a backseat to the employment figures” with regard to the near-term Fed narrative.

The implication: The soft core CPI readout for December isn’t going to raise the odds of another rate cut as long as hiring stays positive on net.