Good news: Overall private sector hiring in the US rebounded late last year as small business payrolls stabilized following a veritable purge.
Headline ADP hiring was 41,000 in December, Wednesday’s closely-watched updated showed. That was short of consensus, but not by a lot. Economists collectively wanted 55,000 or so.
November’s headline was revised to show a slightly smaller net job loss. The three-month average, which turned negative in the prior release, now sits at a still-uninspired 20,000.
The figure’s a reminder: Private payroll growth simply flatlined during the first year of Donald Trump’s second term, an ironic result given the administration’s focus on “re-privatizing” the labor market.
Small firms, which shed 120,000 jobs in November, added 9,000 positions last month. That’s hardly gangbusters, but at least it’s a positive number.
The release underscores the message from ADP’s higher-frequency metric which suggested hiring stabilized from late-November.
By sector, only manufacturing, information and professional services shed jobs in December. That’s indicative of the ongoing factory slump and, quite possibly, AI disruption.
Education and health services added 39,000 jobs while leisure and hospitality chipped in 24,000. Those categories are often derided (as though we don’t need teachers and nurses, and as if we don’t all enjoy eating out), but they’re the engine of job creation. Like it or not.
“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson remarked.
As noted above, the headline counted as a miss, but I’d suggest we should be thankful. This could’ve been worse. It’s very difficult to get a read on the US labor market currently, and I, for one, feared another negative print on Wednesday. Investors will now look ahead to Friday’s BLS release.


