Jobless claims: They’re low in the US. And that’s an understatement.
With the caveat that we’re probably still picking up some holiday distortion, the initial filers series continues to print some of the lowest updates in years, underscoring the notion that while hiring’s subdued in America, employers aren’t in a rush to let workers go.
The latest update from the Labor Department showed initial claims slipped back below 200,000 in the week to January 10. At 198,000, the headline now sits at a six-week low. Consensus was 215,000. Not a single forecaster predicted a print as low as the actual headline.
The four-week average is now just 205,000, a two-year low.
Needless to say, this is entirely inconsistent with any sort of recession narrative and, taken at face value and on its own, argues strongly against additional Fed cuts.
That said, 2025 was among the worst years ever for layoff announcements, according to Challenger, and hiring’s slow not just by post-pandemic standards, but by any standard.
So, it’d be a mistake to read too much into the claims figures, let alone to take them as an all-clear.
Continuing claims for the week to January 3 were 1.884 million, below consensus. The prior week’s print for ongoing filers was revised lower.
My daughter and her husband were both laid off three years ago when their respective firms were bought and mothballed. Neither of them filed for unemployment. First, they both got some severance. But they both told me that filing meant dealing with the demands of the unemployment agencies who would want them to take any job that the agency wanted them to. Both were senior directors and most, if any such jobs were simply not available so they passed. My daughter has finally landed in the only job available in the US that would fit her skills and goals. My SIL has still to strike gold. So my question is how many people get laid off but refuse to file for benefits? 2%? 20%?
I don’t know if this source is authoritative, but supposedly 28MM Americans (16% of civilian workforce) are full-time independents (self-employed as their fulltime job) and that count has doubled since 2020. Another 46MM are part-time and occasional independents. Outside of some special pandemic programs, self-employed can’t file UE claims. https://www.mbopartners.com/state-of-independence/ I wonder how UE claims look as a pct of persons working traditional W2 jobs?
Hassett, “Trump wants an independent Fed”
In other words, “The Great Humungous, Ruler of the Wasteland, wants a free and peaceful wasteland! Just leave the gas for us and we will let you go.” Road Warrior, 1983.