If you were looking for additional evidence to support the notion that the Fed’s almost guaranteed to cut rates in September, you were in luck on Thursday.
Initial US jobless claims jumped 20,000 in the week to July 13, the latest update showed.
That was among the largest increases of 2024 and pushed the headline up to 243,000, tied for the highest print since August. Consensus expected 229,000.
The increase came on the heels of a meaningful decline the prior week. The four-week moving average is 234,750. In mid-January, the MA very nearly moved below 200,000.
Do note (and this is why Thursday’s print matters), the 243,000 reading was for NFP survey week. So, this one “counts,” so to speak. And it was high. By recent standards anyway.
Continuing claims likewise overshot, coming in at 1.867 million for the week to July 6. Consensus there was 1.856 million.
Ongoing claims are the highest since November of 2021, and continue to trend up. That series has shown a gain in 10 of the last 11 weeks.
According to some research, the Fed’s likely to be more sensitive to continuing claims than initial filers. The latter would need to move up near 300,000 to sound the recession alarm.
…..The Republican nominee acknowledged in an interview with Bloomberg News that the central bank would “maybe” cut interest rates before the election on November 5, but added “it’s something that they know they shouldn’t be doing”.
Trump also addressed mounting concerns in financial markets that he would politicise the Fed, starting with attempting to force Powell out before the end of his term as Fed chair in 2026.
“I would let him serve it out,” the former president said. “Especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.” The interview with Bloomberg was conducted in late June but published during the Republican convention in Milwaukee on Tuesday.
Investors have worried the former president would seek to unseat Powell, who is broadly seen on Wall Street as an effective chair, steering the Fed through one of the worst….
https://www.ft.com/content/11bc931f-5c5e-4e3c-9ceb-9bdca25430ad