Yikes.

The marquee gauge of US services sector activity unexpectedly dove into contraction territory for June, data released ahead of the July 4 holiday showed.

At 48.8, the ISM services headline was nowhere near consensus. Economists wanted 52.5.

June’s headline was — get this — the lowest since May of 2020, which is to say the worst read on overall US services sector activity since the original pandemic lockdowns.

By (stark) contrast, the final read on S&P Global’s services sector gauge for June was 55.3, up from the flash reading which was robust enough on its own.

The spread between the two headlines was the widest in favor of S&P Global’s gauge since the summer of 2021.

There’s no use trying to reconcile the two. Frankly, the monthly charade where markets trade the flash prints on the S&P Global gauges only to ignore them completely two weeks later in favor of the ISM releases, is getting a little old. Recall that a hot read on S&P Global’s services PMI was news on June 21. Now it’s irrelevant, apparently. Because ISM “said” so.

“The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment,” ISM’s Steve Miller said. (I don’t know what happened to Tony Nieves this month. I hope he’s ok.)

The ISM new orders gauge printed 47.3, down nearly seven points from May. The business activity index absolutely plummeted — from 61.2 to 49.6. That counts as a “plunge.” Full stop.

S&P Global’s Chris Williamson told an entirely different story. “US service sector companies reported an encouragingly solid end to the second quarter, with output rising at the fastest rate for over two years,” he said Wednesday. “Both new order inflows and hiring have also accelerated, the latter buoyed by firms taking on more workers in response to rising backlogs of work.”

I can’t emphasize this enough: These two guys (Steve and Chris) are talking about the very same US services sector, which is either imploding or booming. 55.3 (the S&P Global print) was the best since April of 2022.

Miller went on to say that according to ISM panelists, business is “flat or lower.” Supplier delivery times are slower, but that’s down to logistical challenges, not indicative of increased demand, they added.

As for the outlook, Williamson said there’s “some nervousness creeping in regarding the post-election business environment.” He didn’t elaborate other than to say that for now, businesses are optimistic “by recent standards.”