If you’re not into politics, it’ll be an arduous week.

Headlines in the days ahead will revolve around the results of the first-round legislative ballot in France, the general election in the UK and Joe Biden’s future at the top of the Democratic ticket in the US.

France saw record turnout for the first of two votes to determine representation in parliament. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally will doubtlessly score outsized gains. The question is whether RN can find a way to secure a majority and force Emmanuel Macron to appoint Jordan Bardella prime minister.

In the UK, the Tories are headed towards what many observers have described as an existential wipeout. The swing to Labour may be the largest in history.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Biden’s clinging to a delusion. The fate of the Democratic ticket (and the country) hinges on whether the First Lady tells her husband the truth. She’s generally seen as the only person capable of convincing Biden to step aside following a debate performance so bad that some Democrats fear the election’s lost if he refuses to pass the torch.

There’s a fairly strong argument to be made that Gretchen Whitmer — not Gavin Newsom and not Kamala Harris — would fare best against Trump. The polling on a Trump-Whitmer head-to-head’s mixed, at best. Currently, it suggests Trump would prevail, although it’s close. For Newsom, the problem’s California. In a match-up with Trump, the state’s a PR liability — a blue stereotype. Whitmer’s battle hardened. Figuratively and almost literally. She’s already a bête noire for Trump, she’s no stranger to a fight with the former president and there’s every reason to believe she’d relish the opportunity to fight him on the biggest stage for the biggest prize. Whether she could win’s another matter, but… well, we all saw the debate.

Anyway, buried below the political headlines this week will be a hodgepodge of stories documenting top-tier data out of the world’s largest economy, which probably added 190,000 jobs in June, according to economists who get paid to be wrong.

The NFP headline will be eyed very closely given the juxtaposition with myriad other data points, most of which suggest the US economy’s cooling.

The household survey in the BLS’s monthly report paints a starkly different picture of the labor market, although the disparity is explainable. A consensus print on the headline would take the three-month moving average down to 209,000 from 249,000, but do note: That’s skewed by April’s relatively “low” 165,000 print. 2024’s been a very strong year for job creation so far.

That assessment (that the US labor market’s firing on all cylinders) admits of numerous caveats, which is to say it’s not just the household survey discrepancy. The BLS’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages update for Q4 suggested payroll growth was slower than initially reported last year and, as noted above, other recent data, including retail sales and abysmal housing figures, points to a decelerating economy.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see May’s muscular NFP headline revised lower. Given consecutive benign CPI reports (reinforced by last week’s cool read on PCE prices), any definitive evidence of material labor market softening (note the emphasis on “definitive” and “material”) would probably prompt traders to price the September FOMC meeting as something close to a lock for the first cut.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is down to 2.2%. That’s still a (very) healthy pace, but it’s back on (or near) the lows.

Ahead of the jobs report, markets will be treated to the usual appetizers: ISM prints for June will either confirm or cast doubt on the upbeat picture painted by S&P Global’s activity gauges, while the JOLTS headline is seen printing below 8 million for the first time since February of 2021.

The schedule’s compressed by Thursday’s holiday. Jobless claims will be released a day early on Wednesday, 15 minutes after ADP’s estimate of private payroll growth for June. Traders will also get the June FOMC minutes mid-week.

July 4 falling on a Thursday means liquidity could be thin and desks understaffed around the NFP headline. “The timing of the holiday will complicate the process of trading the employment report, which will be released Friday morning despite the fact that many will take advantage of the opportunity for a five-day summer weekend,” BMO’s Ian Lyngen remarked. “As a result, the price action immediately following the release will need to be reinforced or challenged the following Monday morning as staffing levels return to normal.”