Implicit in Emmanuel Macron’s brazen decision to dissolve parliament three weeks ago was the notion that the far-right’s outperformance in EU elections was a kind of bluff on the part of annoyed French voters. The two-round snap vote was Macron calling that bluff.
“Oh, you want crazy? I’ll show you crazy!” he seemed to be saying. “Maybe you’ll send fascists to Brussels, but will you pack the National Assembly with them?”
The answer, as it turns out, was “yes.” Marine Le Pen’s RN was set to command between 33% and 34% of the vote, projections showed. That was marginally less than the “worst” case, which had RN polling above 36%, but nevertheless counted as a resounding coup.
For its part, the New Popular Front — the confederation of leftists who united under one banner in a bid to counter Le Pen’s juggernaut — looked to get between 28.5% and 30%, a respectable showing to be sure.
As for Macron and his allies, their share was somewhere between 20% and 22.5%. That appeared to be slightly better than feared, but “better”‘s a relative term.
The runoff math can get very convoluted, very fast, but suffice to say Le Pen could come away with as many as 310 seats or as few as 230, while the leftists could secure anywhere between 115 and 200. Macron will likely walk away with between 60 and 120.
It could’ve been worse? That’s a question. I’m actually not sure. It was pretty bad. Macron called voters’ bluff and they promptly called his. Turnout was 65%, up nearly 20ppt from the 2022 ballot.
As a quick reminder: 289 is the majority threshold. Le Pen needs at least that many seats to commandeer domestic policy and effectively install Jordan Bardella as prime minister. Unless he resigns, Macron will retain control of defense and foreign policy.
Macron continues to insist he has no plans to step down and Le Pen has indicated she won’t try to push him out. One thing’s clear enough, though: Le Pen’s now the dominant force in French politics, concerning as that is.
We’re about to find out whether Éric Ciotti was correct to suggest France’s firewall against the far-right — the “cordon sanitaire” — is in fact passé. Whatever’s left of the country’s imploding political center will now attempt to coordinate defensive maneuvers ahead of the runoffs to block as many of Le Pen’s candidates as possible. This is a pretty epic drama.
Macron exhorted allies and erstwhile rivals alike to unite in a “broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance” for next week’s second round. Le Pen declared Macron “wiped out.” “We need an absolute majority,” she told RN, rallying the troops. “The second round will be decisive.”
An official close to Macron who spoke to The New York Times described the rationale for holding the election now. “By October, an absolute majority for the National Rally was inevitable,” the official said.
Speaking at a post-election event in Tulle, Francois Hollande delivered a chilling warning. “She’s at the gates of power,” he said.
The decision now before Macron and what is left of his party is to ask his party’s candidates to pull out before the second round, and tell those would-be voters to vote for the New Popular Front….in order to prevent a far-right majority control and Bardella as PM. And this after Macron has relentlessly demonized the far-left (though to be fair no one wants Melenchon anywhere near power).
But doing so would almost entirely wipe out what is left of Macron’s party in parliament. The result would be legislative stand-off….and what would that lead to in three years time and the next presidential election?
Macron deliberately blew up the major French parties when he was elected, created no new party to remain after he left the field, and now all of his major reformist actions and passed laws may be overturned if (when?) lepenisme triumphs.
Macron’s party is called Renaissance but the name should Avortement, in terms of what he’s done to French politics, his own legacy and the future of his country.
Disagreed. He didn’t destroy the PS or the Republicans. They did that themselves.
The simple reality is that, after the real or imagined failures of centrism, the French are deeply divided – a solid third or more want to give the fascists a go and blame immigration/neoliberal economics for all/most of our problems. A slightly smaller third blame the rich, the (slightly) richer than average and neoliberal economics for all/most of our problems. A still smaller third think centrism/the world is complicated is still the best bet to try and get out of our quagmire.
That’s the electoral reality. Macron and centrism command 25 to 30% of the voters. It’s hard to say they got a mandate for anything with that kind of support.
Personally, I think letting the fascists fuck it up for 3 years might not be the worse thing in the world if it prevents Le Pen from winning the presidency in 2027.