I hope Emmanuel Macron knows what he’s doing. Really I do.

On Wednesday, during a televised press event that doubled as a campaign ad, Macron called rumors he might resign in the event his snap election gambit backfires “false” and “absurd.”

Maybe the resignation hearsay —  which unnerved markets earlier this week — is false, but it’s not absurd.

An Elabe poll of more than 1,500 French voters published Wednesday suggested Marine Le Pen’s National Rally will trounce Macron’s Renaissance by 13ppt in the first round on June 30.

The idea, I guess, is to thwart Le Pen in the second round, a week later, where “thwart” means prevent a legislative takeover via hastily-arranged alliances. But if Éric Ciotti‘s Ralph Wiggum-style “I’m a collaborator” moment’s any indication, the “Republican Front”s passé. Dead, even.

In the Elabe survey, 58% of French voters said Ciotti was wrong to float an alliance with Le Pen. I don’t know if that counts as “a lot” or no, but that means four in 10 French aren’t opposed to aiding and abetting the far-right. Indeed, it appears that around three in 10 French are the far-right, around the same share observable in America. (Needless to say, almost everyone from Macron’s party and left-wing voters said Ciotti was wrong.)

It looks, to me anyway, like Le Pen and Jordan Bardella would need to perform near the upper-end of the projected seat tally and forge an alliance with LR, if they want a majority. And if they want Bardella as prime minister.

Macron on Wednesday attempted to dispense with idea that Bardella’s destined to become PM, but he (Macron) plainly recognizes the elevated odds of that outcome. “I’m not giving away the keys,” he said, referencing precedent which effectively obliges the president to appoint a PM from the parliamentary majority. Instead, Macron went on, he’s letting the French people choose “the political groups that govern.”

The message to voters was clear. France can either start down the road to fascism or not. That’s what’s on the ballot. And it’s in voters’ hands now. In fact, Macron very nearly said as much. “If people are scared of [a far-right government], now’s the time to wake up,” he told his fellow countrymen and women.

The Elabe poll showed four in 10 French voters prefer Bardella as PM, more than Gabriel Attal. Nearly three quarters said Macron’s a liability to his own cause. So, no, it’s not “absurd” to suggest he might consider resigning. Personally, I hope he doesn’t. But the notion that he should isn’t crazy, even if some of the people promoting it are.