As expected, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation in the US moderated further in May, according to Friday’s update which, despite being a “top-tier” macro input, felt like an afterthought.

The PCE release was billed as pivotal just like every US inflation update and every US jobs report. Everything’s “pivotal” these days. Have you noticed that? It’s not a coincidence. Everything has to be “pivotal.” If it’s not, you might tune out. Then what would Bloomberg do? What would I do? What would any of us who depend on macro and markets to imbue our lives with meaning do?

Anyway, the unrounded MoM core PCE print was 0.08282%. That’s the best (i.e., slowest) month-to-month reading since November of 2020.

The 12-month pace was 2.57261%. The last time YoY core PCE price growth was below 2.6% was March of 2021.

On the headline gauge, prices actually slipped from April to May, albeit imperceptibly. The MoM print was -0.00812%. (Can you feel the savings?!) On a YoY basis, the headline index rose the same 2.6% as the core gauge.

The so-called “supercore” measure the Fed’s watching for evidence of underlying disinflation on the services side rose just 0.1% MoM.

That was among the most benign readings of the pandemic era.

Friday’s update saw real personal spending print a 0.3% gain for May, up from a decline in April and in line with expectations. Personal incomes rose 0.5%. The saving rate rose to 3.9%.

Generally speaking, the data confirmed what May’s CPI and PPI reports suggested: Price pressures have moderated in the US after a succession of overshoots during the first three months of the year.

Maybe Friday’s release increases the odds of a July rate cut at the margins, but my intuition is that the first Fed cut comes at September’s SEP gathering where, depending on the evolution of the labor market data, the dot plot refresh can telegraph a pair of cuts for the full year.