US Housing Market Logs Another Regrettable Record

I hate to relegate the single-worst read on a key leading indicator of US home sales to a footnote but… well, let me put it this way: If it feels to you like I’ve penned the same article about US housing four or five times over the past week, it’s not your imagination. I have.

To call the narrative “familiar” would be to materially understate the case. “Ad nauseam” is more accurate.

That said, I’d be completely remiss not to comment briefly on Thursday’s pending home sales print, the last of this month’s housing market updates. In short, it was awful, where “awful” means the NAR’s index fell to a record low in data going back decades.

Contract signings, which lead existing sales, slipped more than 2% in May from the prior month. Economists expected a gain. Silly them.

This is hopeless, for lack of a better word. But NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun tried to stay upbeat, as is his wont. “Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation in upcoming months,” he said.

I don’t know Yun personally. Maybe his penchant for glass half-full analysis begins and ends with NAR press releases. But — and God bless him for this — he never fails to suggest a silver lining. Even when there isn’t one.

“More inventory in a job-creating economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage rates descend,” he went on, describing the current conjuncture as “interesting,” a euphemism if ever there was one. I call it “gridlock.” Jerome Powell’s called it “very challenging.” Others have it called things like “FUBAR.”

Anyway, Thursday’s release marked the (merciful) end of an abysmal data run. To quickly recap, the last two weeks saw i) a YTD low for home builder sentiment, ii) the worst read on housing starts in four years, iii) another drop in existing home sales, iv) a double-digit plunge in new home sales and v) new price records everywhere you look, underscoring the affordability crunch.

“Interesting” indeed.


 

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One thought on “US Housing Market Logs Another Regrettable Record

  1. I’m probably in the thick of confirmation bias from being so desperate to find work for so long and so terrified about how I’m gonna put food on the table just a few months from now— I know it’s made me insane in just about every other way—But I feel like I’ve been collecting news stories about these little dark economic bellwethers lately. I just hope that the tech sector job recession was a leading indicator, maybe will be the first to bounce back.

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