Consumer sentiment in America “remains stubbornly subdued.”
That’s how survey director Joanne Hsu described another lackluster read on the University of Michigan index, which printed 66 in the preliminary temperature check for this month.
If it stands — which is to say if it isn’t revised meaningfully higher in two weeks like three of the last four initial results — it’d be the worst read on the marquee gauge of consumer sentiment since November.
For whatever it’s worth (nothing — consensus is worth nothing), economists collectively wanted 68.5 from the headline.
Although Hsu was keen to emphasize that the two-point decline from June was “statistically insignificant [and] well within the margin of error,” that’s irrelevant for the purposes of making statements about how Americans are feeling. Bad. They’re feeling bad. Less bad than they were in June of 2022, sure. But still bad. Or “stubbornly subdued,” if you like euphemisms.
The current conditions index slipped to 64.1, two points short of consensus. The expectations gauge printed 67.1, likewise below estimates and down from June.
Inflation expectations loitered right around where they’ve meandered for months. Technically, both the year-ahead and medium-term gauges printed four-month lows, but at 2.9%, both are effectively just hovering 100bps above the Fed’s target for actual price growth.
Jerome Powell calls that “anchored.” I won’t argue with him. Not today, anyway. It’s Friday. What kind of awful person argues on a Friday?
“Nearly half of consumers still object to the impact of high prices,” Hsu went on to say.
I don’t know what that means, exactly. If I’m a CEO, I’m asking Hsu to kindly point me in the direction of the other half. That is: Show me the slim majority of American consumers who don’t “still object to the impact of higher prices” and I’ll gladly charge them more.




Given all the problems with survey polling that have been revealed since the 2016 polling massacre and the issues discussed in the comment section of your other article regarding the dissonance in survey responses it is really beyond me, other than grasping vainly at things to do, why the sentiment surveys exist or are taken seriously.