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Featured

Where’s The Next Bull Market?

May 17, 2025May 17, 2025
  • Capitol Punishment

    May 16, 2025May 16, 2025
  • Is The Fed Ignoring An Inflation Expectations Crisis?

    May 16, 2025May 16, 2025
  • Just When You Thought Americans Couldn’t Get More Depressed…

    May 16, 2025

Duly Noted+

Is Trump Inviting Capital Flight? The Debate Continues

May 16, 2025May 16, 2025

Not Out Of The Woods

May 14, 2025May 14, 2025

economy

Homebuilder Sentiment Crashes Anew As Tariffs, Lackluster Spring Weigh

May 15, 2025May 16, 2025
  • A Wholesale Decline

    May 15, 2025May 16, 2025
  • Key Retail Sales Metric Slips As Walmart Warns On Price Hikes

    May 15, 2025May 16, 2025
  • US Home-Buying Season ‘Stunted’ By Intractable Affordability Crisis

    May 14, 2025May 15, 2025
  • Core Inflation Comes In Cool Again, As Good News Accumulates

    May 13, 2025May 14, 2025

Markets

America Has A Problem. And The Only Solution Is Dollar Weakness

May 15, 2025May 16, 2025
  • More Extortion

    May 14, 2025May 15, 2025
  • It’s Not ‘TDS.’ It’s ‘WTAFITGD’

    May 13, 2025May 14, 2025
  • The Pros Were ‘Glum.’ Then Geneva Happened

    May 13, 2025May 14, 2025
  • What The US-China Trade Truce Means For The Fed

    May 12, 2025May 13, 2025

Politics

Wa-a-a-ait, Mr. Postman!

May 16, 2025May 17, 2025

Royals Bearing Gifts

May 14, 2025May 15, 2025

Remember: It’s Probably A Projection

May 13, 2025May 15, 2025

Providing For The Public Good

May 10, 2025May 12, 2025

JD Vance and Marco Rubio — it’s probably more accurate to say Marco Rubio and

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9 Comments on Providing For The Public Good

As Productivity Falters, Economists Ponder A.I. Devil’s Bargain

May 9, 2025May 12, 2025

Before Donald Trump’s trade war gave it the Dusko Markovic shove, AI was the only

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10 Comments on As Productivity Falters, Economists Ponder A.I. Devil’s Bargain

Rotation Ongoing

May 9, 2025May 11, 2025

If you’re wondering whether the latest flows data provided more evidence for the US-to-RoW rotation

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Leave a Comment on Rotation Ongoing

Why Tariffs Have To Fall

May 9, 2025May 10, 2025

An under-appreciated potential side effect of the Trump administration’s determination to eliminate America’s trade deficit

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3 Comments on Why Tariffs Have To Fall

China’s Export Beat Shows Trump Playing Whac-A-Mole. Again.

May 9, 2025May 11, 2025

China’s export machine was supposed to slow in April, and it did. But not nearly

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7 Comments on China’s Export Beat Shows Trump Playing Whac-A-Mole. Again.

Debating The Dollar

May 8, 2025May 9, 2025

What’s wrong with the dollar? Notwithstanding a nascent bounce that finds the DXY pushing back

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2 Comments on Debating The Dollar

‘Liberation Day’ Piled More Stress On American Families, Fed Survey Shows

May 8, 2025May 9, 2025

The results are in, and the reviews aren’t great. The New York Fed on Thursday

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Leave a Comment on ‘Liberation Day’ Piled More Stress On American Families, Fed Survey Shows

Efficiency Problems

May 8, 2025May 8, 2025

The BLS on Thursday delivered a sobering read on productivity and unit labor costs. Suffice

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2 Comments on Efficiency Problems

A Confused, Split BoE Cuts Rates As Trump Touts UK Trade Accord

May 8, 2025May 9, 2025

Only from the Bank of England can you get a hawkish 25bps rate cut accompanied

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9 Comments on A Confused, Split BoE Cuts Rates As Trump Touts UK Trade Accord

‘So Much Uncertainty’

May 7, 2025May 9, 2025

“Uncertainty” was the word of the day at Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC meeting press conference, where

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8 Comments on ‘So Much Uncertainty’

Deep State Holds Rates Steady

May 7, 2025May 8, 2025

The Fed kept rates on hold Wednesday, as expected. There was no drama around the

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3 Comments on Deep State Holds Rates Steady

Who Wants To Live In D.C.?

May 7, 2025May 7, 2025

Mortgage rates in the US were lower over the past week on average. By a

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Arguing With A Wall

May 7, 2025May 8, 2025

Maybe I was wrong. That’s happened once or twice. Three times even. Four at most.

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8 Comments on Arguing With A Wall

‘What To Talk About’

May 7, 2025May 8, 2025

High-stakes negotiations between the world’s two superpowers in Switzerland. Big league drama. Serious faces. Solemn

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14 Comments on ‘What To Talk About’

Captain Capricious And The Taiwan Canary

May 6, 2025May 7, 2025

This week’s Treasury refunding auctions garnered a lot of attention for obvious reasons. The macro-market

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16 Comments on Captain Capricious And The Taiwan Canary

Straw Men Versus Barbie Dolls

May 6, 2025May 7, 2025

Donald Trump stumbled into another meme last week when, during a cabinet meeting, he played

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10 Comments on Straw Men Versus Barbie Dolls

Love, Fear And Respect

May 6, 2025May 7, 2025

Calogero: “Is it better to be loved or feared?” Sonny: “That’s a good question. It’s

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8 Comments on Love, Fear And Respect

Waiting On The Robots

May 5, 2025May 5, 2025

It’s important to preface this brief update (500 words counts as “brief” ’round these parts)

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3 Comments on Waiting On The Robots

Taiwan As The Blueprint

May 5, 2025May 7, 2025

It’d be a mistake, I think, to write off what happened with the Taiwan dollar

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9 Comments on Taiwan As The Blueprint

Neon Swan: What Just Happened In Taiwan?

May 5, 2025May 6, 2025

If a six-standard-deviation event’s a black swan, what’s a 20-sigma-event? What color swan is that?

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6 Comments on Neon Swan: What Just Happened In Taiwan?

US Services Sector Holds Up. But The Storm’s Comin’

May 5, 2025May 6, 2025

Good news, bad news. Which do you want first? I’ll break with precedent and start

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2 Comments on US Services Sector Holds Up. But The Storm’s Comin’

A Long Week For Jay Powell

May 4, 2025May 6, 2025

This’ll be a long week for Jerome Powell. The Fed convenes Tuesday and Wednesday, and

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2 Comments on A Long Week For Jay Powell

Dope

May 3, 2025May 9, 2025

Flurries It was a busy day, and I was pressed for time. I had to

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12 Comments on Dope

Buffett, 94 With $350 Billion In Cash, Holds Court

May 3, 2025May 5, 2025

Warren Buffett’s still alive. That was one takeaway from Berkshire’s annual meeting, where a 94-year-old,

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12 Comments on Buffett, 94 With $350 Billion In Cash, Holds Court

Miracle Man

May 2, 2025May 5, 2025

Congratulations to Donald Trump: Headed into the US afternoon on Friday, he was set to

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8 Comments on Miracle Man

Is The US Outflow Narrative Overdone?

May 2, 2025May 4, 2025

They were still selling US equities over the last week. And they were still buying

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7 Comments on Is The US Outflow Narrative Overdone?

Jobs Report Comes Up Roses In Boon To Trump

May 2, 2025May 5, 2025

If you were expecting something dramatic — something exciting — from Friday’s US jobs report,

Read More

8 Comments on Jobs Report Comes Up Roses In Boon To Trump

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Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

Dope

May 3, 2025May 9, 2025

The Great Depression

March 31, 2025March 31, 2025

The Devil’s Greatest Trick

March 1, 2025March 12, 2025

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