Israel can’t fight a war in Yemen. I’m just putting that out there.
Early Friday in Tel Aviv, a Houthi drone slammed into a residential area in Israel’s second-largest city, causing an explosion that shook buildings and broke windows. Wreckage rained down onto the streets.
The Houthis cited the usual excuse: The war in Gaza and Israel’s “massacre against the Palestinian people.” The group claimed the UAV was made entirely in Yemen. Israel said it was an Iranian drone.
Ostensibly, that distinction — where the drone was made — is important: If the Houthis made it in their basements and flew it of their own volition, Iran has plausible deniability. If not, not.
In reality, it’s a distinction without a difference. The Houthis are funded, trained and armed by the IRGC. Whether the drone used for this specific attack was homemade and, relatedly, whether Tehran knew about the target ahead of time, is mostly irrelevant.
The Houthis aren’t recognized as Yemen’s rightful government. So, they aren’t a state actor. That means anything they do is ultimately Iran’s fault, the same way it’s your fault if your irritable six-year-old, coming down off a Pixy Stix high, punches a stranger in the groin at the grocery story.
The group also claimed the drone was outfitted with new technology that made it undetectable to Israeli radar systems. You can’t help but chuckle. On one hand, this isn’t funny — a 50-year-old Israeli man was killed in his apartment by shrapnel. On the other hand, there’s something undeniably comical about the notion that the Houthis are so far along in their R&D efforts by now that they’re developing in-house UAVs sophisticated enough to evade Israel’s air defenses.
Still, there were pressing questions Friday about why Israel didn’t blow the damn thing out of the sky. We’re talking about a Houthi drone versus the Iron Dome here. That shouldn’t be a contest.
Contrary to the Houthis’ assertions, Israel did see it. They just didn’t immediately identify it as a threat, and so didn’t shoot at it. And the air raid sirens didn’t trigger. Eight people — at least — were injured. “We’re investigating why we didn’t attack it and intercept it,” the IDF said.
The timing left something to be desired. The incident occurred as Donald Trump was regaling an audience in Milwaukee with a far-fetched plan to replicate the Iron Dome in the United States.
The Houthis said they plan to keep shooting at Tel Aviv and may even target areas deeper inside of Israel.
There’s really not a lot Israel can do about this other than make sure they intercept the next one. The IDF isn’t in a position right now to take the fight to the Houthis on their home turf. It’s not even clear what the logistics of that would look like.
I imagine the US will blow a few things up in Yemen today. And probably a few more things over the weekend, then try to call it even.
Meanwhile, The International Court of Justice said Friday that Israel’s in violation of international law in occupying the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
It was a notable declaration. It’s the first time the ICJ weighed in definitively on one of the world’s most contentious territorial disputes.
The Israeli right will castigate the ruling — which isn’t binding — as another example of a global conspiracy against Israel. The country’s critics will call it validation of what everyone’s known for decades.
