Revenge Of The Little Guy

If you were wondering whether the historic rotation to small-caps that dominated market headlines earlier this week was accompanied by big inflows to related equity products, the answer is a decisive “yes.”

Small-cap funds saw their second-largest weekly inflow ever, according to EPFR.

As the figure below shows, the nearly $10 billion haul has no recent precedent. And yes, it should make you feel old — or young, whichever the case may be — that 2007/2008 no longer counts as “recent.”

The small-over-large trade was the biggest market story in a week dominated by political headlines. Recall that the Russell 2000’s six-session relative performance to big-tech through mid-week counted as the most pronounced in nearly four decades.

Whether the rotation — which also showed up in value and beaten down cyclicality — has any staying power is one of the key questions looking into the back half of the year.

Certainly, small-caps were overdue. The figures below are remarkable no matter how many times you see them.

Suffice to say large-over-small, big-tech-over-all, reached existential extremes this year as the AI rally crescendoed.

The last time we saw anything like the current relative performance extremes was at the top of the dot-com bubble.

“Risk rotation not risk retreat is the Q3 client zeitgeist,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote, flagging a rotation “from the USD to gold, momentum to volatility, monopolies to leverage” and, of course, from large to small.

“No one,” he went on, is rotating from stocks to bonds, though, nor from US shares to the rest of the world. Not yet, anyway.


 

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