Credit Canaries
In addition to a smorgasbord of macro data, a Fed meeting and earnings reports from
What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting
Nothing. That’s the answer to the question implicitly posed by the title here. A succession
Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?
Last Friday, I wrote that “the business week ended October 16, 2026, will either be
After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?
Although I’ll take it vis à vis my early-October suggestion that US yields had likely
Kevin Needs A Credit Event
If the Kevin Warsh Fed was already inclined to suggest the market’s “doing some of
Return Of The Left-Tail
Remember the left-tail? If not, no one will blame you. It was, err, left for
Not Since 1969…
Earlier this month, I noted that US jobless claims were about to make history. Again.
Not Done Just Yet?
The Pentagon’s “assembling a massive arsenal” in the Gulf, where American forces will be “fully
Flying Cars, New Share Class Highlight Tesla, Meta Results
The company soon to be known as SpaceX was free-cash-flow positive last quarter, according to
Ken Sees A Bubble
Ken Griffin, who didn’t love his Nick Offerman character in Dumb Money, sees a bubble.
A Starship Enterprise
Merger. Merger. M–M–M–Merger. America. Let’s go. Let’s do this. — Jackie Moon A long-rumored tie-up
Watch This Space
“To infinity and beyond!” Or whatever. Elon Musk’s rocket-making, satellite-broadband company-turned-data-center REIT reported Q3 sales
AI ON / AI OFF
“Three weeks, three different continents.” That’s what Charlie McElligott’s been up to recently. Beats my
Dear Lord…
Jesus Christ. That’s a two-word summary of Tuesday’s housing market updates out of the US
The Elice Canary
“All ants are dying.” So read the caption on a picture of Lewis Carroll’s Alice
Is The Earnings Bubble About To Pop?
Is the great American “profit boom” coming to an end? Spoiler alert: Probably not, and
Euphoric Depression
“Alms, alms, alms for the poor homebuilders.” I don’t know how much sympathy there is
Questions, But No Answers
Nobody panic. It’s just a violent uprising. And however tense things get, history shows that
Is China’s Balance Sheet Recession Intractable?
China’s still mired in a balance sheet recession. That much is clear. What’s less clear
As The World Burns
At least in terms of scheduled events, this’ll be a slow week on the macro
France Can’t Even Save Itself, Let Alone NATO
On Saturday evening, I reluctantly read an article in Foreign Affairs by Ivo Daalder, Barack
Ukraine Fatalism Or Ukraine Realism?
Kirill Dmitriev likes it. Likes Donald Trump’s decision to suspend the implementation of triple-digit tariffs
Chipwrecked
In the context of what many believe is the largest speculative mania since the dot-com
Gloom Or Boom?
On Friday, while chatting with Kristalina Georgieva at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, Kevin Warsh
Weekly: Mr. Coy
In saying nothing — or anyway very little, and nothing of real substance — about
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