War Inflation Triggers Sharp Jump In US Mortgage Rates

Purchase activity in America’s gridlocked US housing market moved up over the last week.

Just in time for the 30-year fixed to jump 15bps in three days amid back-to-back above-consensus inflation reports.

At 6.57%, Mortgage News Daily’s high frequency series is 11bps above the weekly average reported by the MBA on Wednesday.

That MND average was last higher on March 27, during the worst days of the conflict.

In the MBA update, 6.46% counted as a five-week high, but purchase apps (white line in the figure above, inverted on the left scale) still managed a decent advance both on an adjusted and unadjusted basis.

“Purchase applications were higher over the week and ahead of last year’s pace, as potential homebuyers shrugged off the current economic and rate uncertainties and returned to the market,” Joel Kan said.

Let’s see how eager buyers are with rates moving up another 10bps. (“If you didn’t love it but bought it anyway at 6.46%, you’ll hate it and may balk at 6.57%.”)

Meanwhile, the much-discussed (in these pages) sellers-versus-buyers spread contracted slightly in favor of the former in April, according to the latest update from Redfin.

Still, this remains the best environment for discounts in at least 13 years. As the figure below makes abundantly clear, sellers predominate, and by a huge 46.5% margin.

Note that this series was revised: The high in December was 45.2% as of the last update. Now, the data reflects an imbalance of 48.9% for that month.

The preponderance of sellers means Americans lucky (or meritorious, if you buy the meritocracy myth) enough to have $80,000 in cash, a solid six-figure income and near-perfect credit can demand big concessions. In theory anyway.

“If the number of buyers continues to grow, more homeowners may see it as an opportunity to list their homes, helping bring the market out of this deep freeze,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan told Lily Katz.

Meanwhile, Redfin’s price index, which is much more timely than the Case-Shiller releases, suggests the median US home sale price rose 2.4% YoY to $396,173 in April. That’d be the largest gain in a year.

I’ll quote Katz, as I’m wont to do on these updates: “It’s only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy.”


 

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