A US recession’s nowhere in sight, or at least not according to government and private-sector economic aggregates, but the so-called “vibecession” lives on.

The first read on America’s marquee household mood gauge for May was predictably abysmal on Friday. At 48.2, the preliminary snapshot of Michigan sentiment counted as a record low for the second straight month.

Recall that the first estimate for April — 47.6 — was likewise an all-time worst. It was later revised to reflect a marginally better, but still God-awful, 49.8.

May’s month-to-month drop was the third consecutive.

It’s all about prices. “While the expectations index inched up, current conditions fell back owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases,” survey director Joanne Hsu said, noting that households remain very pessimistic about real income growth.

It helps to own stocks. The figure below gives you a sense of how equity ownership can ameliorate the psychological distress from higher consumer prices.

The share of survey respondents who cited inflation while complaining about their personal finances was around 15ppt lower for the top stock-owners.

Simply put: If you own stocks, dividends and buybacks are a kind of rebate on higher prices for the goods and services you consume. And that’s on top of paper gains from the equity rally.

A third of consumers mentioned gas prices spontaneously this month in the Michigan poll. Around the same share mentioned tariffs. “Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures,” Hsu went on.

Both near-term and long run inflation expectations remain well above the pre-pandemic norm at 4.5% and 3.4%, respectively.

Womp, womp.