Congratulations to Donald Trump: He’s now the proud owner of the lowest consumer sentiment readout in the decades-long history of America’s most respected gauge of household moods.
University of Michigan sentiment printed 47.6 on Friday in the preliminary estimate for April. That was nowhere near consensus and marks the worst readout in monthly data going back to 1978.
The previous record low was 50.2, reached in June of 2022 when headline inflation in the US was near double-digits.
The MoM decline in percentage terms was nearly 11%. The headline’s down 16% since the start of the war.
“Demographic groups across age, income and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall,” survey director Joanne Hsu remarked, adding that a forward-looking measure of business conditions “plunged” while “concerns over high prices and weaker asset values” hit assessments of personal finances.
The Current Conditions index came in at 50.1. That’s a new record low.
At 46.1, the Expectations gauge nearly matched the 1980 nadir.
Not surprisingly, near-term inflation expectations skyrocketed, rising a full point from March to 4.8% in early April. That’s the largest one-month increase since “Liberation Day.”
The figures came an hour and a half after a CPI report blighted by a huge increase on the BLS’s energy index, which rose the second-most ever on a record surge in gas prices.
Almost all interviews for the Michigan sentiment survey were completed before this week’s ceasefire in the Mideast. If the truce holds, the final read on April sentiment might be better. Inshallah.




If the turbulence is strong enough for long enough the airframe can sustain metal fatigue and begin to fail.
Remember Jimmy Stewart in “No Highway in the Sky.”