“Mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said Wednesday, in its monthly oil market report.
Total losses attributable to Gulf producers’ stranded product now exceed a billion barrels, the agency added, tallying the impact of some 14 million barrels per day of crude that’s now shut in.
We’re witnessing, the report went on, “an unprecedented supply shock” mitigated partially by the fact that the market “was already in surplus heading into the crisis while producers and consumers alike are responding to market signals.”
As Donald Trump embarked for China mid-week, there was scant evidence to suggest the Iranians are prepared to make the concessions he wants in exchange for ending the war. Nor did Trump offer anything in the way of conciliatory rhetoric before heading to Beijing.
CNN, citing unnamed sources, suggested an impatient Trump is “now more seriously considering a resumption of major combat operations” to pressure Iran.
The same reporting said some Trump officials worry Asim Munir, Pakistan’s military strongman, is playing down the state of “Trump’s displeasure” when liaising with Tehran, while “sharing a version of the Iranian position” that’s more constructive than “the reality” when communicating with The White House.
Meanwhile, gas prices in the US remain north of $4.50. Trump says he doesn’t care. Or at least not in the context of the existential threat from Iran’s (purportedly “obliterated”) nuclear program.
“Not even a little bit,” Trump responded, when asked by a reporter whether he’s concerned about the strain on households from high gas prices.
In case that was somehow unclear, Trump drove it home: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.”
Music to Benjamin Netanyahu’s ears, surely. But I doubt US voters are amused.
The figure above’s a reminder: The current conditions index from the University of Michigan sentiment survey, the marquee gauge of household moods in America, hit a new record low earlier this month.
Trump was 34ppt underwater on the economy in the latest single-issue polling from Reuters/Ipsos. The same poll showed him 49ppt underwater on inflation specifically. (In fairness, that survey consistently reflects disapproval ratings below other major polling.)
On Tuesday, Pentagon comptroller Jay Hurst told Congress (you know, the elected body which is supposed to make decisions about declaring war and spending taxpayer money) that the cost of the war’s up to $29 billion.
Of course, things aren’t exactly going well in Iran either, but the regime figures a populace accustomed to oppression and acute economic hardship can persevere.
That’s probably true (it’s also quite unfortunate that more than 90 million people are continually compelled to suffer for a vision fewer than a third of them support), but the Guards are losing revenue by the day.
As Bloomberg’s Julian Lee noted on Tuesday, citing European satellite images, oil shipments from Kharg are “at a standstill” for the first time since the start of the war.
That’s the blockade kicking in, and Iran doesn’t have a lot of avenues to beat it, notwithstanding a desperate, 10,400-kilometer rail route to China that runs through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
But hey, who needs hard currency when you’ve got missiles, right? According to classified US intelligence assessments described by The New York Times, the Guards managed this month to “restore operational access to 30 of [their] 33 missile sites along the Strait.”
The same intelligence suggests Iran retains “roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile,” the article said.
29 billion! Under budget and ahead of schedule
and Iran will pay for it
29 billion , that must be only the direct costs of military operations ? that is the cost of 2 new aircraft carriers
Sign of the times: my neighbor sold his Ram 3500 truck (used for commuting 40 miles a day for work) and bought a Toyota Tacoma.
You can always count on Trump. When he’s in a hole, he’ll just keep on digging and throwing the dirt on the rest of us.
I absolutely don’t believe the $29 billion number unless it’s just for last week. The rising deficit is in the trillions. We’re not totally babes in the woods out here. Only the MAGA crowd is.
With the way the military is being run, how can anyone trust the numbers.
Trump is like a talking thought balloon.
Love it!
That NYTimes article is depressing. I get that Iran certainly isn’t winning, but it sure doesn’t seem like we accomplished much of anything. Are we going back to the decapitation strategy and hope it works this time around? Start blowing up infrastructure (or maybe more schools while we’re at it)?
All of our military power might be more useful in a traditional war, but it sure seems that asymmetric warfare doesn’t give us a whole lot of bang for our buck (figuratively anyway).
Man, Trump couldn’t get on that plane to China fast enough could he? And what an entourage he took with him too: family members, Rubio, Bessent, Hegseth (who takes the Secretary of War with them on a diplomatic visit?) Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang (if you include Trump and Hegseth I count three of the “Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse” right there!) Even the guy who directed that wonderful documentary about Melania. It boggles the mind.
What are we hoping they come back with exactly? A lasting trade deal that eliminates the need for tariffs? A sweetheart deal for Americas wealthiest business moguls? A phone call from Xi telling Iran to knock it off? A movie deal? A plane full of cheap, duty-free, Chinese electronics perhaps? All of the above? It boggles the mind:
“Roll up, roll up for the mystery tour.
Roll up, roll up for the mystery tour.
Roll up, we’ve got everything you need,
Roll up for the mystery tour.
Roll up, satisfaction guaranteed,
Roll up for the mystery tour.
The Magical Mystery Tour is hoping to take you away,
Hoping to take you away. . . . Take you today.”
T-Dog – my favorite Beatles video, by far. Watch it once or twice a year.
I have it on DVD as well as on a Laserdisc!