“Collision or even clashes.”

That’s what’ll happen in the unfortunate event America “mishandles” the Taiwan issue.

So said Xi Jinping during a two-and-a-half-hour chat with Donald Trump in Beijing on Thursday.

“Taiwan independence and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water,” Xi declared, according to a Xinhua readout, which was arguably less abrasive than the Western media made it out to be.

Compare and contrast:

Xi told Trump that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations. If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.

The Taiwan issue is the most critical issue in China-US relations. If handled well, relations can remain stable. If handled poorly, the two countries will collide or even clash, putting the entire US-China relationship in an extremely dangerous situation.

The first excerpted passage is from the actual (i.e., official) English language Xinhua readout. The second’s indicative of US mainstream news coverage on Thursday.

Without reading too much into competing translations (feed the original Mandarin release into three translators and you’ll get three slightly different translations), but the notion that Xi menaced Trump with war on Thursday (implicit in quite a few US media headlines) is misleading.

Indeed, the title Xinhua chose — “Safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the biggest common denominator between China and the US” — alluded to Beijing’s ostensible preference for peaceful reunification.

Of course, any such allusions are read in cynical corners as inherently disingenuous to the extent that even a Hong Kong-style takeover wouldn’t count as “peaceful.” Usurping democracy by coercive means isn’t a peaceful gesture just because you didn’t resort to physical violence or fire any missiles.

Also, the timing of the short Xinhua readout was no accident. The Party released it, both in simplified Chinese and in English, before any other official summary of the Xi-Trump meeting. And as a standalone news item. (Note the emphasis.)

Taipei chafed. “China’s military threat is the sole source of insecurity in the Taiwan Strait and the broader Indo-Pacific region,” Michelle Lee, cabinet spokeswoman for Premier Cho Jung-tai, said, calling the “continuous enhancement of defense and effective joint deterrence” crucial for “ensuring regional security.”

Later, while standing next to Xi during a tour of the Temple of Heaven — a UNESCO World Heritage site where Ming and Qing emperors prayed for good weather — Trump ignored media questions about Taiwan. He was asked at least twice about the island and pretended not to hear.

My own view is that Xi’s content to wait. He thinks the US is in terminal decline. He said as much on Thursday, even as Trump surely didn’t read it that way.

The world’s experiencing a “once-in-a-century transformation,” Xi said. That’s a reformulated version of “changes unseen in a century,” a propaganda talking point that refers, obliquely or not, to the dissolution of the US-led, post-War global security architecture and other manifestations of American hegemony.

In 2023, Xi invoked the phrase during parting wishes to Vladimir Putin following a trip to Moscow. “There are changes the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years,” Xi said. “Together, we are the ones driving these changes.”

Xi likely believes that in due time, the US won’t be capable of defending Taiwan, or at least not at an acceptable cost. Besides, the island holds elections in 2028 which could produce a government more amenable to Beijing’s overtures, even as US elections that year may well result in a government more determined to safeguard democracy on the island.

Anyway, a White House version of the Xi-Trump meeting said both China and the US “agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon” and that “the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy.” Other topics discussed included fentanyl, Chinese market access for American companies and, of course, Chinese purchases of US agricultural products.

Notably, Chinese state media didn’t mention the Iranian nuclear program nor the Strait. A readout released subsequent to the Taiwan standalone just said the Mideast was discussed.

Trump received all the pomp and flattery you’d expect. Chinese children stood in rows cheering and waving flags, Xi played the “The Star-Spangled Banner” for Trump and there was 21-gun salute in Tiananmen Square.

“We should be partners, not adversaries,” Xi said, inside the Great Hall of the People, while introducing a new term for the goal of Sino-US relations: “Constructive strategic stability.”

He was kind enough to define that. It’s a state of affairs “characterized primarily by cooperation” but with “well-regulated competition and manageable differences.” If pursued, such a relationship will promote “lasting and predictable peace,” Xi said.” “You’re a great leader,” Trump told him.