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Featured

Trial Balloon

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

The CoreWeave Doom Spiral

October 15, 2026October 17, 2026

At the lows on Thursday, CoreWeave was down more than 25% since the beginning of

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10 Comments on The CoreWeave Doom Spiral

A Wholesale, Effing Disaster

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

The renewed surge in energy costs, and particularly the vertical inflection for fuel prices, showed

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5 Comments on A Wholesale, Effing Disaster

AI Trade Bleeds Out As TSMC, Anthropic Updates Are Damp Squib

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

On the surface anyway, things are going fine. Just ask Taiwan Semi CFO Wendell Huang,

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Leave a Comment on AI Trade Bleeds Out As TSMC, Anthropic Updates Are Damp Squib

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Not that you were going to, but take no solace in Thursday’s ostensible “beat” for

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Cloudy With A Chance Of Zero

October 14, 2026October 15, 2026

“Yikes.” That was my reaction to Wednesday’s US CPI report, which showed inflation across the

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22 Comments on Cloudy With A Chance Of Zero

Yikes! Big Inflation Overshoot Upends Fed’s ‘Patience’ Message

October 14, 2026October 15, 2026

Underlying inflation in the US ran hotter than expected last month, Wednesday’s update from the

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4 Comments on Yikes! Big Inflation Overshoot Upends Fed’s ‘Patience’ Message

China Still Not Tired Of ‘Winning’ On Trade

October 14, 2026October 15, 2026

Are they “tired of winning” yet? China, I mean. Apparently not. Xi Jinping’s now guaranteed

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1 Comment on China Still Not Tired Of ‘Winning’ On Trade

BofA Hit By Fine, Trading Slump. Wealth, Equities Shine At Morgan Stanley

October 14, 2026October 15, 2026

Bank of America on Wednesday reported results that fell short of consensus on both the

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The Chips Are Down Again

October 13, 2026October 14, 2026

Remember CXMT? If not, don’t worry: I didn’t either. I had to use my own

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10 Comments on The Chips Are Down Again

They Want 6%, Scott

October 13, 2026October 14, 2026

6%. On 10s. That’s what it’s gonna take to tempt professional capital allocators to rotate

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5 Comments on They Want 65, Scott

Meanwhile, At Goldman: More, More, More

October 13, 2026October 14, 2026

To say Goldman’s stock traders have had a good 2026 would be an understatement, and

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1 Comment on Meanwhile, At Goldman: More, More, More

JPMorgan Results Are Decent Enough

October 13, 2026October 14, 2026

The House of Dimon reported earnings that missed estimates on Tuesday. That’s not something you

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3 Comments on JPMorgan Results Are Decent Enough

Can I Interest You In This Fine $400K Wooden Box?

October 13, 2026October 13, 2026

After three straight months of declines, and despite a steep increase in financing costs, the

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Leave a Comment on Can I Interest You In This Fine $400K Wooden Box?

Old, Rich, White People

October 12, 2026October 13, 2026

Getting old generally sucks. I don’t think that point’s debatable. Sure, any one person’s lived

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14 Comments on Old, Rich, White People

Still Cashing In

October 12, 2026October 13, 2026

There’s a lot of cash on the proverbial sidelines. Still. There’s still a lot of

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3 Comments on Still Cashing In

Imaginary Ceasefire

October 12, 2026October 13, 2026

Over the weekend, Donald Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” in the Russia-Ukraine war. The moratorium

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8 Comments on Imaginary Ceasefire

Balloon Animals

October 11, 2026October 13, 2026

Recent Fedspeak, where that means heavyweights John Williams and Philip Jefferson leveraging public speaking engagements

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3 Comments on Balloon Animals

Saudi Arabia’s Deadly Day May Pull Trump Into Yemen War

October 10, 2026October 12, 2026

The Houthis are inviting a US military intervention in Yemen. On Saturday, at least a

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9 Comments on Saudi Arabia’s Deadly Day May Pull Trump Into Yemen War

Who’s Afraid Of The Big, Bad Unknown?

October 10, 2026October 12, 2026

One of my least favorite charts was back in the news this week. Plotting any

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3 Comments on Who’s Afraid Of The Big, Bad Unknown?

Closed Committee

October 9, 2026October 11, 2026

Back in June, I went out of my way to emphasize that the Supreme Court’s

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25 Comments on Closed Committee

Trump Breaks His Own Macro Misery Record

October 9, 2026October 10, 2026

In this week’s macro preview, I wrote that the only question around the preliminary read

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9 Comments on Trump Breaks His Own Macro Misery Record

Weekly: Are Stocks Really Whistling Past The Graveyard?

October 9, 2026October 12, 2026

Yes, the S&P managed to post a new record close (the first since August 13

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Leave a Comment on Weekly: Are Stocks Really Whistling Past The Graveyard?

Reprieves

October 8, 2026October 9, 2026

Don’t worry. Donald Trump’s not going to kill off an “entire civilization” tonight. Nor tomorrow

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15 Comments on Reprieves

Maricarmen, Le Pen And The Great Fiscal Reckoning

October 8, 2026October 10, 2026

María del Carmen Abascal, the disabled 87-year-old who became the face of Spain’s housing affordability

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7 Comments on Maricarmen, Le Pen And The Great Fiscal Reckoning

Bombs, Brent And Breakevens

October 8, 2026October 9, 2026

“A whole civilization will die tonight.” Or maybe tomorrow night. Sometime before the midterms. Maybe

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5 Comments on Bombs, Brent And Breakevens

US Jobless Claims Set To Make History. Again.

October 8, 2026October 13, 2026

Anybody care about US jobless claims? Not really? Well, I can’t blame you. The release

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1 Comment on US Jobless Claims Set To Make History. Again.

Halle-freakin’-lujah

October 7, 2026October 8, 2026

It goes like this, the fourth, the fifth The minor fall, the major lift… Hallelujah.

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2 Comments on Halle-freakin’-lujah

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Monthly Letter

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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