“I’d expect all SpaceX offerings to be heavily oversubscribed,” I wrote earlier this week, editorializing around the inaugural debt sale for the world’s first lunar REIT.
Then I posed a question: “What’s not to like?” Who, I wondered, wouldn’t want to loan money “to an alleged, former ketamine addict to build AI data centers on the moon”?
Fast forward 24 hours and sure enough, reports suggest voracious investor appetite for SpaceX’s debut bond sale. Specifically, the $20 billion, five-part offering drew nearly $90 billion in demand, according to Bloomberg.
That’d mean the deal will be more than four times oversubscribed, a little less if Elon Musk upsizes it to $25 billion, which he probably will. (Why wouldn’t he, when people are that eager?)
In a separate piece, Bloomberg noted that the SpaceX deal was fully subscribed “even before the sales process had formally begun.”
On the equity side, SpaceX clawed back $20 billion in market cap Tuesday after shedding $400 billion in Monday’s rout.
As a reminder: There’s no way to value this company. It could be worth as much or as little as you’re inclined to suggest. Any estimates you might run across — high, low or in-between — turn, at least in part, on the level of buy-in for the Musk mythos.
I noticed we’re calling SpaceX a “conglomerate” now. That’s an even more amusing euphemism in the context of a sci-fi pipe dream-turned opportunistic AI money grab than it is with respect to a textile manufacturer-turned insurance business-turned massive hedge fund.
Also on Tuesday, a Falcon 9 rocket launched from Cape Canaveral just before 7 AM. It was carrying a “Starfall” capsule. The mission would appear to be the first of two detailed in a May Proposed Action filing with the FAA.
As SpaceX explained, the Starfall initiative seeks to establish the viability of two businesses, one of which involves the “point-to-point delivery of critical cargo through space on rapid timelines,” the other would “create a self-sustaining commercial in-space manufacturing market.”
I’d brave a joke or two, but let’s face it: The fact that Elon’s a trillionaire, even “just” on paper, unavoidably means the joke’s on all of us.
Once I start seeing rocketships full of gold returning from the moon, asteroids or Mars, on a regular basis, I will take 1% of my investible funds and buy Musk. Not until then.
Yes, this is all a joke but I’m better off laughing than crying.
This isn’t investment advice: Bought shares on SPCX IPO (despite my reading the prospectus) because I need to feel the mania to trade it. I get allocated SPCX, it runs up, and I buy the 200 puts. I also buy TSLA stock as I see the “TSLA/SPCX merger” crowd growing. I sell covered calls against the TSLA.
SPCX turns down, I sell the puts. TSLA turns down, I buy back the calls. TSLA runs up, I resell the calls. It turns around and I buy them back.
Now I’m with a sub-100 basis on SPCX, and 370 on TSLA. America in 2026. What could go wrong?!
Jack Bogle just rolled over in his grave.
Why in God’s name would you make this so hard? Do you know what the odds are on outperforming buy-and-hold over a 50-year investment horizon trading like this?
You’ll surely say you’ve beat the S&P 500 every year since 1972, and I’ll take you at your word (not really), but I gotta ask: You know this kind of trading is (at least) as likely to be counterproductive as not, right?
Yes, you are totally correct. Jane Street will make mincemeat out of me. As for “hard”, thank you… that is a compliment coming from someone who annotates his Kant texts! This is not investment advice, but merely my investigating the latest zeitgeist as I have done since 1982. And Jack probably has been rolling over since Vanguard started pushing private equity a few ago. In a “base account” I would hold roughly 55% equities, 25% low duration, 20% commodities/gold. Equities skewing away from US, and again not investment advice and YMMV.
“As for ‘hard,’ thank you… that is a compliment coming from someone who annotates his Kant texts!”
That got a chuckle out of me. And I’ll thank you for it, because I needed a chuckle today.
Poor Jack, he really deserves to rest in peace.