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Featured

Trial Balloon

November 10, 2026November 10, 2026
  • He’s An Importer-Exporter, Okay?

    November 10, 2026
  • The Dark Side Of Liquidity: The Genealogy Of The AI Arms Race

    November 9, 2026
  • Megaspeed Indeed. (Two Huangs Don’t Make A Right)

    November 9, 2026November 9, 2026

Markets

Buy The Dip? (Honeypot Training)

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Jensen Got Honey-Trapped

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Weekly: Melodrama

    November 7, 2026November 9, 2026
  • ‘Dem Fatale’ Crashes The AI Party

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • On Wall Street: Crash And F’in’ Burn

    November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

economy

What Are Treasurys Telling Us?

November 9, 2026November 10, 2026
  • Inflation Week!

    November 8, 2026November 9, 2026
  • Inflation Fatalism Has Set In

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • Drunken Monkey Darts

    November 6, 2026November 8, 2026
  • ‘Tis The Season! For Temporary Fulfillment Jobs

    November 5, 2026November 6, 2026

Geopolitics

Rasputin Presiding

November 8, 2026November 9, 2026

Tsunami

November 4, 2026November 5, 2026

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Duly Noted

US Jobless Claims Chase History

November 5, 2026November 7, 2026

Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

November 3, 2026November 8, 2026

All That Glitters

October 7, 2026October 8, 2026

The war-driven surge in fuel costs and a generalized sense that “stuff’s getting more expensive

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1 Comment on All That Glitters

House Fire

October 7, 2026October 11, 2026

“Harry, I know you’re pissed. We had a setback.” “Listen, Scott, I am in a

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12 Comments on House Fire

SpaceX The Hyper-Scaler

October 7, 2026October 8, 2026

SpaceX is gonna need to borrow some more money. Several tens of billions more, reportedly.

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11 Comments on SpaceX The Hyper-Scaler

SPX Moon?

October 6, 2026October 7, 2026

If the S&P can manage new records up near 7,825 with 10-year Treasury yields at

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4 Comments on SPX Moon?

À La Janet?

October 6, 2026October 7, 2026

Are you worried about the inexorable rise in US bond yields? Because Scott Bessent is.

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Leave a Comment on À La Janet?

AI And Oil: America’s Historic Profit Bonanza Rolls On

October 6, 2026October 7, 2026

You know things are going well when corporate America’s expected to report profit growth of

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Leave a Comment on AI And Oil: America’s Historic Profit Bonanza Rolls On

Maybe Trump Can Starve Iran Out After All

October 5, 2026October 7, 2026

Ask five different experts whether Donald Trump can starve out the IRGC and you’ll get

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19 Comments on Maybe Trump Can Starve Iran Out After All

Burn, Baby, Burn

October 5, 2026October 6, 2026

Europe’s ungovernable. Breaking news, I know. On Monday, an already fraught political environment took a

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2 Comments on Burn, Baby, Burn

Back Right?

October 5, 2026October 6, 2026

There’s about to be a Bolsonaro living in The Palácio da Alvorada again. Headed into

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6 Comments on Back Right?

It’s Hot

October 5, 2026October 6, 2026

Tariffs and fuel costs. Those were the “most cited issues” among ISM service panelists in

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2 Comments on It’s Hot

$5,000 Or Bust

October 4, 2026October 5, 2026

The macro data docket’s pretty light this week, which is fine by me notwithstanding I

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9 Comments on $5,000 Or Bust

Weekly: The ‘Humiliation’ Trade

October 3, 2026October 5, 2026

I’d like to buy long-end US Treasurys right now. And I did, both this week

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29 Comments on Weekly: The ‘Humiliation’ Trade

What If The Fed Can’t Slow The Economy?

October 2, 2026October 5, 2026

If you’re old enough to remember the last Fed tightening cycle (there’s a joke there,

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12 Comments on What If The Fed Can’t Slow The Economy?

Railroaded

October 2, 2026October 5, 2026

In terms of concentration risk, the AI trade’s now on par with the largest bubbles

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15 Comments on Railroaded

US Jobs Report: Womp, Womp

October 2, 2026October 4, 2026

“Come on, come on, big bucks, no whammies, no whammies!” Drumroll…… 29,000. That’s the NFP

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10 Comments on US Jobs Report: Womp, Womp

Bonds At The Breaking Point

October 1, 2026October 3, 2026

Have we given up trying to call the top in G7 bond yields? Because if

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17 Comments on Bonds At The Breaking Point

The Only Certainty Is Chaos

October 1, 2026October 2, 2026

It’d be too strong to say investors were “on tenterhooks” ahead of Thursday’s update on

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3 Comments on The Only Certainty Is Chaos

Laying Claims

October 1, 2026October 2, 2026

“No hiring, no firing.” That’s the macro refrain in America, and it was underscored Thursday

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3 Comments on Laying Claims

Holiday Hiring Off To Slowest Start In 15 Years

October 1, 2026October 2, 2026

Good news, bad news. Which do you want first? I’ll go bad. Seasonal hiring was

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1 Comment on Holiday Hiring Off To Slowest Start In 15 Years

¡Viva La Revolución!

September 30, 2026October 1, 2026

Long live the revolution! If there were any doubts as to whether memory will remain

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2 Comments on ¡Viva La Revolución!

1999, 2007 And 2026?

September 30, 2026October 1, 2026

Albert Edwards thinks the equity bull market’s reached “peak nonsense.” Critics would tell you Albert’s

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1 Comment on 1999, 2007 And 2026?

Cool Revisions, Man

September 30, 2026October 1, 2026

Consumer spending in America was faster than expected and inflation slower last month, according to

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4 Comments on Cool Revisions, Man

Down, Set, Hike?

September 30, 2026September 30, 2026

“A strong report.” That’s how ADP chief economist Nela Richardson described Wednesday’s nonfarm payrolls appetizer,

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Leave a Comment on Down, Set, Hike?

This Is What Policy Failure Looks Like

September 30, 2026October 1, 2026

I haven’t checked Donald Trump’s TruthSocial feed on Wednesday, and inshallah I won’t have to,

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8 Comments on This Is What Policy Failure Looks Like

The Real Debate

September 29, 2026September 30, 2026

10-year real yields in the US are flirting with 3%, which is… I don’t know.

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6 Comments on The Real Debate

Anthropic IPO Prospectus: Taking An ‘Existential Risk’

September 29, 2026September 30, 2026

“Hello, I represent a privately-held company that intends to offer shares to the investing public

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27 Comments on Anthropic IPO Prospectus: Taking An ‘Existential Risk’

‘Timberrrr!’

September 29, 2026September 30, 2026

“It’s goin’ down, I’m yellin’ timber!” Who remembers that song? If your hand’s not raised,

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5 Comments on ‘Timberrrr!’

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

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To Be Happy

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Hell Or High Fashion

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