Earlier this month, I noted that US jobless claims were about to make history. Again.
The four-week average of the initial filers series had just moved below 200,000 for the second time in as many months. If it stayed there the following week, it’d mark just the fourth time since 1969 that the rolling, one-month average for headline initial jobless claims was below 200,000 for consecutive weeks.
That did in fact pan out, which is to say the four-week average printed with a 100,000-handle again, marking two straight weeks. The key point was that, as I put it in the linked note, “this exceedingly rare event seems on the verge of becoming semi-routine.”
Consider the following. After the 1969 episode, it took more than half a century for this metric to repeat the feat. Following the 2022 occurrence, it took less than four years. Following the August 2026 episode, it took just two months.
With that in mind, initial claims printed 194,000 on Thursday for the week to October 17. That was the third-lowest in four years. And while the prior week’s print was revised up to 200,000 (on the nose), the four-week average fell to 197,750.
As the figure shows, this makes three straight weeks below 200,000 for the rolling metric.
I know what you’re thinking. You’re Peter Griffin right now: “Oh my God. Who. The-hell. Caarres?”
This is exactly the kind of quick take you don’t write if you’re interested in maximizing web traffic and piquing reader interest but… well, humor me. Look at the table below.
Not since 1969 has this metric printed below 200,000 for three weeks in a row.
I’m still not sure you (or I) should care, but I’m reasonably sure this is worth noting. If for no other reason than to fill up space on a Thursday.
Once upon a time, jobless claims were a decent enough way to gauge near-term recession odds. Either the series has lost all its predictive power (read: relevance) in that regard, or the US economy’s nowhere near rolling over. I’ll let you decide which is the more accurate characterization.
The US employment situation might be freezing up. Immigration witch hunts have eliminated workers and scared others into staying home. Multiyear inflation and a disappearing safety net means you’d best keep your job unless you’re uber wealthy. There are theoretically more jobs than there are unemployed but those figures have always seemed circumspect for numerous reasons. I’ve worked for corporations that list openings publicly knowing full well they will fill the position internally. They do it to meet HR reporting requirements. They do it to justify work visas. They do it to get government contracts. I’m sure there are more reasons. The bottom line is the jobs aren’t there. And what is the quality of those that are for real. When wage growth isn’t keeping up with inflation it’s not a sign of economic health. That is unless you’re on Team Trump.