Jesus Christ.

That’s a two-word summary of Tuesday’s housing market updates out of the US economy, where households are either the most depressed on record or “euphoric,” depending on who you’re inclined to trust, the nation’s most respected consumer sentiment poll or Kevin Hassett. (Hold that thought.)

Contract activity for existing homes plunged 7.3% in September, the NAR said. That’s among the largest declines in years. Consensus expected… you know what? It doesn’t matter. Not that. Economists didn’t expect that. But they damn well should’ve, because household sentiment’s in the dumpster (which is on fire) and mortgage rates rose ~60bps last month.

As the figure shows, 66 on the NAR gauge is a new record low and that’s really, really saying something. Because we’ve seen some bad prints on that gauge in recent years.

The NAR’s habitually chipper chief economist Lawrence Yun suggested rates could be “topping out,” but admitted that “fast-rising” financing costs are an albatross. “Although job growth and income gains can support home purchases, housing affordability is more affected by changes in mortgage rates,” he remarked.

Meanwhile, government data showed the pace of overall new residential construction was the second-slowest since the onset of the pandemic in September. The 5.2% MoM decline on the housing starts headline made for a stark contrast with consensus, which expected a gain.

As the figure shows, single-family starts likewise fell. At just 859,000, the seasonally adjusted annual rate was the second worst since March of 2023.

The numbers are disappointing but hardly surprising: Builder sentiment’s only been worse in the aftermath of the GFC and during the 1990-1991 recession, according to Monday’s (absolutely abysmal) update from the NAHB.

Recall that the NAHB headline maps very well onto new, single-family construction for obvious reasons. Consistent with the NAHB readout for October, the single-family permits series in Tuesday’s government release fell to 845,000, the slowest annual pace in 39 months.

There were no silver linings to be found in Tuesday’s housing market releases, unless you count the notion that the bar for things to get worse is now very “high.” And that brings us full circle to Hassett’s widely-lampooned “euphoria” characterization, delivered during a CNBC cameo earlier this week.

Kevin is a wellspring of prescience, even if it sometimes takes a while for his predictions to pan out — and assuming you can cope with a little volatility in the meantime. For example, he predicted the Dow would hit 36,000 21 years before it actually did.

So, if you’re not feeling especially “euphoric” right now, give it until 2050 or so. Good things come to those who wait. And patience is a virtue.