Womp, womp.

The typical American housing payment rose to a one-year high in the four-week rolling period to June 14, new data from Redfin shows.

Part of the problem’s prices. Although YoY price growth’s undershooting overall inflation (and wage growth), making homes gradually more affordable in real terms, that’s small comfort for the cash-strapped in the here and now.

Coming up with 15% (to say nothing of 20%, if you want to avoid PMI) of a base model Purosangue is mission impossible for a lot of Americans. As table stakes go, that’s a helluva high buy-in for everyday people: If you don’t have $65,000 in cash, rates are irrelevant because you can’t even afford to sit at the table where financing costs are discussed.

For those who do have the minimum buy-in, but not a lot more, and can’t prove enough in the way of gross monthly income to make the mortgage math a no-brainer, every basis point on the 30-year fixed counts. And thanks to the war, rates remain well above the local lows.

The figure above shows you the evolution of monthly housing payments by year going back to 2023. At the start of the Iran war, the median mortgage payment was around $2,500. Now it’s $2,647, just $100 shy of the all-time high, notched three years ago.

“Housing payments are rising because both home-sale prices and mortgage rates remain stubbornly high,” Dana Anderson sighed, in an editorial accompanying the update. “High costs are pricing many would-be homebuyers out of the market, and widespread economic uncertainty is causing others to think twice before making a major purchase.”

Ostensibly, this is a buyer’s market. Indeed, going strictly by the sellers-versus-buyers imbalance, the latter haven’t had as much leverage in the negotiating process in at least 13 years.

The figure above underscores the point. More than 46% of sellers gave concessions in May, which Anderson noted is the highest share for any May in Redfin’s records. “Listings have piled up,” she went on, “causing sellers to turn to concessions as they compete for buyers.”

It says a lot — none of it good — about affordability when pervasive concessions and the spring buying season are insufficient, together, to rekindle demand.

Of course, the issue isn’t “demand,” as such. There’s plenty of “demand” for homes, just like there’s no shortage of “demand” for exotic Italian sports cars. But just because you want one, doesn’t mean you can afford one. And, as noted here, the income needed in America to comfortably afford the median home is 33% higher than the median household actually makes.

In simple terms: We’re asking the typical family on the typical paycheck to buy something that’s atypically priced. As long as that’s the case, sales won’t recover.

Lower rates, while welcome, won’t do anything to address the (in some cases chasmic) divide between buyers’ savings and the down payment requirement. Nor will seller concessions (no matter how generous) be sufficient to bridge that gap.