New residential construction activity in the US decelerated last month, data released on Thursday showed.

Although the decline in overall housing starts was relatively shallow at 2.8%, single-family starts fell more than 9% from the prior month, the largest drop since August and, before that, since March of 2025.

The slowdown came on the heels of a big pickup in March, during which headline starts and single-family construction rose at a double-digit rate.

I don’t want to blame everything on the war, but as the NAHB was keen to point out this week, “rising gas prices and economic uncertainty related to the war in Iran continue to dampen demand,” a gut punch during spring buying season.

Although overall permits rose in Thursday’s government data, single-family permits slipped.

It’s not just buyer caution in the face of elevated pump prices and generalized macro angst. The oil-driven selloff in Treasurys pushed mortgage rates to their highest levels of 2026, and builders’ input costs are rising.

Separately, Redfin on Thursday said pending home sales fell more than 1% on a WoW basis in the week ended May 17.

That doesn’t sound especially noteworthy, but I mention it because it’s the first decline since early-April.

That, in turn, suggests three months of momentum in contract activity might be exhausted in the face of a 75bps increase in financing costs since the start of the war.