For the first time in six months, higher inflation and the monetary policy implications of a hypothetical re-acceleration in consumer price pressures aren’t the top tail risks in a marquee poll of professional investors.

Instead, “geopolitical conflict” topped the tail risk list in the July installment of BofA’s Global Fund Manager poll, the bank’s Michael Hartnett said.

Geopolitics captured more than a quarter of the vote this month to “higher inflation”‘s 22%. The survey period did capture last week’s favorable US CPI report (by a day) but the July 5 to July 11 survey period narrowly missed Donald Trump’s Matrix-style bullet dodge.

As the figure shows, concerns around a US recession and hard landing waxed considerably from June to capture nearly one in five tail risk votes.

“US election sweep,” a new entrant, commanded 12% of the votes. Needless to say, the inclusion of that “risk” in the poll stems directly from Joe Biden’s debate loss late last month.

It’s not a secret that the world’s a dangerous place. And by now, shouting about the most contentious geopolitical environment since the Cold War — and possibly since one man’s genocidal cocaine fever dream nearly brought on the apocalypse — feels almost banal. But make no mistake: The situation really (really) is fraught. This is not a drill, so to speak.

The figure above is familiar to a lot of market participants. It’s the history of top tail risks in the BofA poll.

The war in Ukraine grabbed the top spot just after Vladimir Putin invaded his neighbor. Recession worries predominated the following month, but quickly gave way to renewed inflation jitters. The regional banking crisis (and associated recession risks) topped the list for a few months last year, and then geopolitics stormed up the list following the Hamas attacks on Israel in October.

Other than those months, inflation and/or hawkish central banks were the top tail risk(s) in every survey since US consumer price growth accelerated during the spring of 2021.

Currently, there’s no one factor that explains heightened perceptions of geopolitical risk. It’s a confluence of events and, one imagines, the psychological wear and tear of waking up to Revelation-esque headlines every day.

Although some argue that the return of a would-be strongman to The White House would actually lower the geopolitical (but certainly not the actual) temperature globally, I tend to doubt it. But I’ve been wrong about Trump before.