As expected, the ECB cut rates for a third time on Thursday.

The move, 25bps, completes an abrupt about-face for the Governing Council. Maybe “about-face” isn’t the right way to characterize it, but suffice to say policymakers were avowedly noncommittal about the timing of the next cut at the September policy gathering. There wasn’t much to indicate October was in play, and indeed at least one official all but said this month’s meeting in Slovenia wasn’t live, so to speak.

Between then and now, a smattering of disappointing soft data tipped the odds in favor of another cut. The cherry on the dovish sundae was a downward revision to September’s headline inflation print. Price growth ran 1.7% last month, Eurostat said Thursday.

The ECB’s now cut by 75bps, but headline CPI in Europe’s receded by nearly a full percentage point since May. So, adjusted for headline price growth, the depo rate’s actually higher than it was when rate cuts commenced in June.

“Financing conditions remain restrictive,” the bank said Thursday, explaining the decision to cut which, in addition to “the strength of monetary policy transmission,” was based on an “updated assessment of inflation” and “recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.”

The figure below plots European services inflation with both the services-sector and composite PMIs.

To be completely honest, I’m not sure I see the case for rushing into the third cut. Yes, the composite PMI’s back in contraction territory, and yes, services inflation printed a three-handle for September, but the latter’s still far too high and since when are we cutting rates based on a dip below the demarcation line in PMIs? Do note: The bloc-wide services PMI is still in expansion territory.

Plainly, the ECB’s overweighting downside growth risks in the decision calculus, and that’s fine. Europe’s not a place where growth’s especially likely to re-heat and overshoot in any sort of dramatic way. The ECB’s “animal spirits” risk — i.e., the risk of inadvertently sparking a bout of rekindled price pressures through the consumption and wealth effect channels via rate cuts — is significantly lower than the Fed’s.

Still, there’s some tension in the statement language. “Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months,” the bank reiterated, before quickly adding that any such uptick should be fleeting.  “Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace.” The GC’s still “determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% target in a timely manner” and Christine Lagarde will “keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve” that goal. So… rate cuts?

I think, if we’re honest, the rationale for today’s cut was simpler than the GC and strategists would have you believe: There are two months between now and the next policy gathering. If the European economy were a package, it’d be stamped “Fragile! Handle with care.” A lot can — and probably will — happen between now and December 12. Better safe than sorry.