Last week, in an update detailing yet another in a never-ending stretch of abysmal reads on US homebuilder sentiment, the NAHB noted that nearly four in 10 builders cut prices in early July, and nearly two-thirds offered incentives.

July, the NAHB went on, marked the 16th straight month during which the share of builders resorting to incentives was north of 60%.

That’s the context for a relatively respectable read on new home sales, which managed their first gain since March last month, according to data released Friday.

As the figure reminds you, this series has been a sideways affair since a tepid rebound from the drop-off that accompanied the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign in 2022.

I’m (very) confident writing the uptick off to the above-mentioned price cuts and incentives. There’s no real recovery afoot here, and mortgage rates are stuck thanks to war-related upward pressure on US Treasury yields.

This week’s MBA update put the average 30-fixed at almost 6.70%, the highest in nearly a year.

Since the start of the war, rates are up nearly three-quarters of a point. That’s just murder for buyers struggling to make the math work.

Although overall application activity managed a modest advance over the week, MBA VP Mike Fratantoni cautioned that “with oil prices spiking again” the improvement in US inflation readouts registered in June “seems unlikely to continue, and mortgage rates are likely to remain higher as a result.”

As long as rates keep creeping up, it’s on sellers (which in the case of new construction means builders) to help get buyers’ feet in the door. That’s the context for another YoY drop in the median new home price.

As the figure shows, June was the fifth month in six that the median showed a YoY decline. Further, June was just the fourth time in five years that the median price slipped below $400,000.

Of course, $398,300 (June’s median price) is still too expensive for a lot of American homeowner hopefuls. So, this is the worst of all possible worlds: Builders’ margin sacrifices are largely for naught, because even with concessions and price cuts, buyers can’t afford to take the plunge.

What can you say? Should’ve elected the white male billionaire real estate developer instead of the black female communist. Oh, wait. We did!