There Is No ‘Value’ Here, So Just Stop It.

Common sense ain’t so common.


A Truly Taxing Day.

Thursday, bloody Thursday.

False Start.

15 yards…

Just One Question As The Bond Rout Continues: When’s The Tantrum In Stocks?

Ok, so the setup is definitely in place…

Two Hundred And Seventeen Years.

Wouldn’t it be super-fun if someone looked at bonds and equities from 15 DM countries going back 217 years and then made an equally weighted index to find out how expensive things really are versus history? 

‘A Big, Huge, Alaskan Grizzly Bond Bear’ Finds A New Trade

“I am a big, huge, Alaskan Peninsular grizzly of a bear when it comes to fixed income, but sometimes I need to find ways to express that view without just putting it all on the dark side.”

The Dog Days: July In Charts

The dog days are here…

A Dovish Fed Day In Charts

So “dovish” it was, or at least “dovish” was the market’s read on the Fed statement. The language on the outlook for inflation was timid and “relatively soon” on the balance sheet gives them an out if they end up needing it. “The post-meeting statement noted that the Committee expects to begin balance sheet normalization…


“There were some fleeting signs of two-way price action, but generally speaking, shit remained at about its highest level ever.”

Stocks Fly To Records, Global Risk Rally Continues As Bad Data, ‘Good’ Yellen Keep Hope Alive

The message is loud and fucking clear: the vol. seller’s/ carry trader’s paradise and the risk party that’s made every homegamer with some SPY and QQQ look like a guru for the past eight years depends on DM central bankers staying some modicum of dovish. And on that score, bad data helps.

Stocks Surge On ‘Good Cop’ Yellen; Trader Makes ‘Unprecedented’ $10 Million Bond Bet

Well, the message from Yellen was heard loud and clear and amusingly, so was the message from Stephen Poloz. In fact, you’d be forgiven for thinking they coordinated to make sure one offset the other. The BoC hiked, as expected, but “expected” is a relative term here. Because the whole abrupt shift in rhetoric that culminated…

‘Beware Global Tapering’: Behold The ‘Safe Bond Supply Shock’

What effect will Fed balance sheet normalization have on Treasury yields? That’s quickly becoming something of an obsession for market participants and rightfully so. After all, no one (least of all the Fed itself) has any idea how this is going to work or how it will impact markets. This situation is complicated immeasurably by…

And God Said “Let There Be Data: And There Was Data.”

It’s Friday and God said, “let there be data: and there was data.” Let’s start in Europe, where inflation slowed to 1.3% y/y this month from 1.4% (final) in May. That’s a bit higher than estimates. The core rate printed at 1.1% y/y, that’s also a bit higher than forecast and higher than May’s 0.9%…

A Better Way To Short The Bond Market

“This morning I have decided to write about US swap spreads. I know, you are already reaching for the delete key, but wait”…

Yo, They’re Selling The Shit Out Of Some Government Bonds

Yeah, so the cacophony of hawkish commentary from central bankers has triggered a global selloff in government bonds. As noted earlier, bund yields are higher by goddamn 20bps since Monday – and that’s a lot considering the starting point (25bps). Treasuries are being sold (that’s three straight days), gilt yields are higher (Carney comments), etc.…