Is the move in breakevens overdone? One bank thinks the answer is "maybe." If you don't know the context (and perhaps even if you do) this isn't the most exciting debate in the world. But it is important to the overall market narrative. Breakevens breached 2% for the first time since 2018 recently, as the reflation trade gathered steam. Since the March 2020 collapse, breakevens have risen pretty much in lockstep with equities, and, in turn, real rates in the US were driven deeply negative.